{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bloomington-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 144, "label": "Bloomington, IN MSA", "slug": "bloomington-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:16:25.091434+00:00", "headline": "Bloomington restaurant pay tightens as the broader metro economy contracts.", "headline_summary": "Bloomington posted the steepest metro employment decline in the U.S. at -5.9%, yet Crew pay rose to $31,200 and Server pay fell to $29,120 \u2014 a split signaling restaurant labor tightness is moving independently of the local economy.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro employment change (YoY)", "value": "-5.9%", "context": "Largest decline of any U.S. metro, per BLS Oct. 28 release"}, {"label": "Bloomington area wage change", "value": "-6.2%", "context": "2025 annual, vs. state/national wage growth"}, {"label": "Monroe County / metro unemployment", "value": "3.7%", "context": "Matches Indiana state rate; forecast to reach 4.0% in 2026"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover rate", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic (National Restaurant Association)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Bloomington's economy is contracting while restaurant hiring tightens.", "body": "The metro's -5.9% employment decline and 6.2% wage drop in 2025 reflect university-sector weakness. Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay rose locally even as metro wages fell, indicating restaurant labor scarcity is decoupled from the broader economic slowdown."}, {"headline": "Server pay is falling locally while national rates hold steady.", "body": "Metro Server median sits at $29,120, down moderately, versus a stable $35,024 nationally \u2014 a gap of nearly $6,000. Elimination of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October gives operators more flexibility on side-work pay, which may be compounding downward pressure on advertised front-of-house compensation."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay decline signals softening banquet and event demand.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay dropped significantly to $42,640, well below the national $50,076 and falling faster than the national trend. This tracks with reduced university and institutional event volume tied to campus-sector contraction, a signal worth weighing before backfilling catering leadership roles at prior pay levels."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house wage floor holds while cook demand is projected to outpace servers.", "body": "Line Cook pay is stable locally at $33,280 against a national $37,421, a persistent $4,000 gap even as BLS projects 12% cook employment growth through 2035 versus 2% for waiters. Static local pay amid rising structural demand suggests Bloomington kitchens may face sharper recruitment friction than the current numbers show."}], "local_conditions": "Bloomington's labor market shows a structural divergence from state and national trends: the metro posted the largest over-the-year employment decline of any U.S. metro at -5.9%, while area wages fell 6.2% in 2025, driven largely by university-sector contraction that ripples into local consumer spending. Monroe County unemployment sits at 3.7%, matching the state rate, but IBRC forecasts a climb to 4.0% in 2026, signaling a labor pool that is loosening even as restaurant-specific roles remain hard to fill.", "implications": "Metro-wide wage contraction and a forecast unemployment rise suggest Bloomington's labor pool is loosening overall, yet advertised pay for Crew (+moderate) and Shift Manager (+moderate) roles is still climbing locally \u2014 evidence that frontline restaurant hiring is tightening independent of the broader metro economy. Server pay fell locally (down, moderate) against a stable national median, widening a gap that could accelerate front-of-house attrition toward operators or markets offering steadier tipped income. Consider reviewing tipped and hourly pay structures separately from salaried management roles, since the metro's macro softening is masking role-level tightness in entry and shift-lead positions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy shift to monitor", "body": "Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives Indiana operators more room to pay $2.13 tipped wage for side work without the prior 20% cap. Watch whether local operators adjust shift structures or base pay in response, particularly given the local Server pay decline already underway."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "IBRC's forecast of unemployment rising to 4.0% in 2026 combined with continued health and education sector growth (+4.1%) may expand the pool of workers seeking supplemental or transition income in food service. Monitor whether this eases back-of-house sourcing pressure over the next two months."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Indiana's reliance on an estimated 104,500 undocumented workers in food service entry roles creates exposure if federal immigration enforcement intensifies. A labor supply shock here would hit back-of-house roles hardest, given Line Cook pay is already compressed relative to national rates."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Catering Manager pay's sharp local decline may be an early signal of broader institutional and event-driven demand softening tied to university-sector contraction. Track whether this pattern extends to banquet and off-premise roles tied to campus and conference business."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33897.5, "metro_p50": 39483.4, "metro_p75": 40895.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 53662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29098.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35146.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 58275.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26064.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32310.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27560.0, "metro_p50": 32384.0, "metro_p75": 33436.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm", "statement": "Bloomington posted largest over-the-year employment decline among metros"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Business Research Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bloomington area wages fell 6.2% in 2025"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ooh/", "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% vs. 2% for waiters, 2025-2035"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover reached approximately 80%"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Business Research Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "IBRC forecasts Bloomington unemployment rising to 4.0% in 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "bloomington-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "bloomington-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:55.674015+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bloomington-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bloomington-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}