{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bismarck-nd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 136, "label": "Bismarck, ND MSA", "slug": "bismarck-nd-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:25:49.637017+00:00", "headline": "Bismarck's labor market is tight, flat, and splitting by sector.", "headline_summary": "Bismarck metro unemployment sits near a nation-low 1.9% even as nonfarm employment held flat year-over-year, with Registered Nurse pay up significantly while Construction Laborer pay fell sharply.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bismarck MSA unemployment rate", "value": "1.9%", "context": "July 2026; lowest among sub-100k labor force metros"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm employment change", "value": "0%", "context": "Flat YoY in Sept.; private -100, government +100"}, {"label": "Statewide open positions", "value": "12,000+", "context": "vs. ~4,000 new ND jobs created annually"}, {"label": "ND labor force participation", "value": "69.3%", "context": "Down from 69.9% a year earlier"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Flat jobs, record-low unemployment point to a supply constraint.", "body": "September nonfarm employment was unchanged year-over-year even as unemployment sat near historic lows, meaning the metro's challenge centers on available workers even with steady labor demand. For commerce leaders, this reframes local growth constraints around workforce supply."}, {"headline": "Government employment is offsetting private-sector softness.", "body": "A 100-job private-sector decline in September was matched by a 100-job public-sector gain, a pattern that echoes the state's broader public-sector stability even as private payrolls shed jobs elsewhere. This suggests the public sector is currently a stabilizing force in the metro's overall employment count, worth tracking as state budget decisions evolve."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and construction pay are diverging sharply from healthcare and tech.", "body": "Construction Laborer and Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay both moved down significantly locally while Registered Nurse and Software Engineer pay rose, a split that runs counter to the national manufacturing hiring gains reported in September. Local business investment decisions in goods-producing sectors may face a different wage environment than the state's headline tightness narrative implies."}, {"headline": "Housing costs are compounding the labor-supply constraint.", "body": "Burleigh County's median home value near $338,000 against median household income of $88,701 raises the bar for workers relocating into the metro to fill open roles. Commerce leaders evaluating workforce-dependent expansion should weigh whether current housing costs limit the pool of in-migrating workers even where wages are rising."}], "local_conditions": "Bismarck metro unemployment held at 1.9% in July, the lowest among metro areas with under 100,000 labor force participants nationally, while nonfarm employment stayed flat year-over-year in September as a 100-job private-sector decline offset a 100-job public-sector gain. Advertised pay for Registered Nurses (up, significant) and Software Engineers (up, moderate) continued climbing even as Manufacturing Production Workers and Construction Laborers saw significant local pay declines, pointing to a metro economy where healthcare and technical demand is pulling wages up while goods-producing trades soften.", "implications": "Flat headline employment alongside a near-record-low unemployment rate suggests Bismarck's labor constraint is structural, reflecting a metro that is not creating enough net new workers to fill open roles, a dynamic consistent with the state's 12,000-plus open positions against roughly 4,000 new jobs created annually. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion should treat wage divergence across sectors (healthcare and technical roles rising, manufacturing and construction pay falling) as a signal that labor availability will shape project timelines alongside cost; current conditions suggest reviewing which sectors face the tightest local supply before committing to expansion plans dependent on trades or production labor.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "October BLS data for the Bismarck MSA has not yet been released; watch for the next metro employment report to confirm whether the September private-sector dip was a one-month blip or the start of a trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "North Dakota's new Department of Workforce Development, led by Katie Ralston Howe, is expected to shape state policy response to the 12,000-plus statewide job openings. Its early initiatives may signal whether the state leans toward workforce development, in-migration incentives, or other levers."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide labor force participation slipped to 69.3% from 69.9% year-over-year even as North Dakota holds one of the nation's highest participation rates. A continued decline would tighten the Bismarck labor pool further regardless of job creation."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction and manufacturing advertised pay fell significantly locally this month while national figures moved up or held stable. Commerce leaders tracking regional competitiveness for industrial investment should watch whether this gap persists or reflects a temporary local adjustment."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 36213.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26794.0, "metro_p50": 29640.0, "metro_p75": 31510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33347.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58178.0, "metro_p50": 81614.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31478.0, "metro_p50": 39447.0, "metro_p75": 45796.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36479.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 46259.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68801.5, "metro_p50": 81838.0, "metro_p75": 99777.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32454.0, "metro_p50": 38719.6, "metro_p75": 47320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33906.0, "metro_p50": 38077.0, "metro_p75": 39807.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 29896.0, "metro_p50": 37523.0, "metro_p75": 37523.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35247.0, "metro_p50": 40010.0, "metro_p75": 46280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46946.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64052.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75330.0, "metro_p50": 99214.2, "metro_p75": 112411.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 126671.0, "metro_p50": 156822.6, "metro_p75": 167018.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92241.75, "metro_p50": 123361.2, "metro_p75": 137763.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57558.0, "metro_p50": 68010.0, "metro_p75": 75786.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76345.0, "metro_p50": 109394.0, "metro_p75": 118794.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50971.0, "metro_p50": 70322.0, "metro_p75": 77845.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50888.75, "metro_p50": 77464.8, "metro_p75": 86287.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77001.25, "metro_p50": 91033.6, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 38740.0, "metro_p75": 53160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79401.75, "metro_p50": 112363.0, "metro_p75": 132255.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73905.0, "metro_p50": 87906.8, "metro_p75": 102621.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 75000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 123062.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62765.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 140357.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 100880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 94824.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 89046.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33095.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67389.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bismarck MSA unemployment at 1.9% in July, ranked 1st among sub-100k metros"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bismarck metro nonfarm employment flat YoY in September"}, {"source_name": "Job Service North Dakota", "source_url": null, "statement": "North Dakota has 12,000+ open positions against ~4,000 annual job creation"}, {"source_name": "County housing and income data", "source_url": null, "statement": "Burleigh County median home value $338,255 vs. median household income $88,701"}, {"source_name": "Governor Kelly Armstrong's office", "source_url": null, "statement": "ND Department of Workforce Development created, led by Katie Ralston Howe"}, {"source_name": "Job Service North Dakota / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "ND labor force participation fell to 69.3% from 69.9% year-over-year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "bismarck-nd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "bismarck-nd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "bismarck-nd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:50.850637+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bismarck-nd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bismarck-nd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}