{"schema_version": 1, "id": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 128, "label": "Billings, MT MSA", "slug": "billings-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:26:17.697448+00:00", "headline": "Billings holds 3.1% jobless rate as Montana payrolls shrink statewide.", "headline_summary": "Yellowstone County unemployment sits at a tight 3.1% even as Montana lost 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year \u2014 its first annual decline since 2020 \u2014 while local wages rose 3.3% to $1,355 weekly.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Yellowstone County unemployment", "value": "3.1%", "context": "August 2026, down 0.2 pts year-over-year"}, {"label": "Montana annual job change", "value": "-5,300 jobs", "context": "First annual decline since 2020"}, {"label": "Yellowstone avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,355", "context": "Up 3.3% y/y, Q4 2025"}, {"label": "Montana labor force participation", "value": "62.6%", "context": "Down from 63.1% a year ago"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Montana's first job decline since 2020 complicates the low-unemployment story.", "body": "Statewide payrolls fell 5,300 over the year even as unemployment sits at 3.1-3.2% in Yellowstone County, a combination consistent with employers holding headcount flat. Commerce leaders citing low unemployment as a growth signal should pair it with this payroll context."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is outrunning job creation across the metro.", "body": "Yellowstone County average weekly wages rose 3.3% year-over-year to $1,355 while county employment grew just 0.8% in 2025, a pattern that looks like wage pressure from a static labor pool. This dynamic shapes how local businesses should read advertised pay data as a cost signal more than a growth signal."}, {"headline": "Housing costs are quietly offsetting Montana's nation-leading wage gains.", "body": "Montana ranked first nationally for wage growth in 2025 at 5.4% against a 3.4% national rate, yet persistent housing cost pressure is eroding the real purchasing-power benefit for local households. Consumer spending capacity is the more relevant gauge of local business climate strength this quarter."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and tech job ads diverge sharply from manufacturing softness.", "body": "Statewide healthcare employment grew 5.4% and information/tech jobs grew 28% in 2025, while manufacturing contracted 2.8%, and Billings' own Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay fell moderately to $39,520. These figures reflect job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), and sector-level divergence this wide suggests economic development targeting should differentiate by sector."}], "local_conditions": "Yellowstone County unemployment held at a tight 3.1% in August, even as statewide payrolls contracted by 5,300 jobs over the past year \u2014 the first annual Montana employment decline since 2020 \u2014 pointing to a labor market where low joblessness coexists with flat hiring activity. Local wage growth (3.3% year-over-year to $1,355 weekly) continues to outpace the county's 0.8% job growth, consistent with employers paying more for a workforce that is holding steady in size.", "implications": "Flat employment alongside firm wage growth suggests Billings-area businesses face a holding-pattern economy: labor is available but not accumulating, and expansion plans should weigh housing costs and participation trends as much as advertised pay levels. Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating business-attraction or expansion incentives should treat Yellowstone County's 0.8% job growth \u2014 one of only four Montana urban counties still posting gains \u2014 as a sign of relative resilience, with momentum still to be confirmed. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether healthcare and information-sector strength (statewide healthcare +5.4%, tech +28%) is translating into measurable Billings payroll additions before assuming broad-based local expansion is underway.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "BLS and Montana Department of Labor are scheduled to publish October state and metro-level figures on November 20; this will be the first direct read on whether Yellowstone County's job growth held through fall or began tracking the statewide decline."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Montana's labor-force participation rate slipped to 62.6% from 63.1% a year ago, a signal worth watching locally for whether Billings residents are exiting the workforce or simply not being counted as job growth flattens."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, a cost input for retail, food service and hospitality employers already showing advertised pay softness in roles like Delivery Driver (down significantly) and Construction Laborer."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National healthcare hiring strength (physicians, surgeons, therapists topping demand) and Montana's 5.4% healthcare sector growth suggest Billings' hospital and clinical employers warrant tracking as a leading indicator of whether the metro's job growth broadens beyond its current narrow base."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27782.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36447.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26031.5, "metro_p50": 30333.0, "metro_p75": 32067.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34136.0, "metro_p50": 37465.0, "metro_p75": 41384.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57121.0, "metro_p50": 82725.0, "metro_p75": 92038.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32350.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 43644.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 89355.6, "metro_p75": 111280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35637.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34270.0, "metro_p50": 38487.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29967.75, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39936.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 51376.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36113.0, "metro_p50": 42877.4, "metro_p75": 45240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67910.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 79341.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91209.0, "metro_p50": 109642.0, "metro_p75": 116547.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88215.0, "metro_p50": 147521.0, "metro_p75": 168170.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86610.0, "metro_p50": 113425.4, "metro_p75": 123436.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51120.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 66662.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74914.0, "metro_p50": 80579.6, "metro_p75": 82988.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48000.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 78612.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57507.0, "metro_p75": 70608.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59299.5, "metro_p50": 96224.0, "metro_p75": 100110.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 52707.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66759.25, "metro_p50": 104094.6, "metro_p75": 115215.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52814.75, "metro_p50": 65501.2, "metro_p75": 70938.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70545.0, "metro_p50": 88303.0, "metro_p75": 93950.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 61459.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 65814.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37966.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65137.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 65332.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 87720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66940.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32484.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67639.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts / Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Yellowstone County unemployment at 3.1% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Missoula Current / MATR", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana lost 5,300 jobs over the past year, first decline since 2020"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Yellowstone County average weekly wage rose 3.3% to $1,355 in Q4 2025"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Business and Economic Research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana ranked first nationally for wage growth in 2025 at 5.4%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana labor force participation fell to 62.6% from 63.1% year-ago"}, {"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana minimum wage rises to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:44.095710+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}