{"schema_version": 1, "id": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 128, "label": "Billings, MT MSA", "slug": "billings-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:40.815091+00:00", "headline": "Billings labor market tightens while growth narrows to healthcare", "headline_summary": "Billings MSA unemployment sits at 2.9% against a 4.1% national rate, but Yellowstone County's 0.8% job growth and Montana's healthcare-led hiring suggest a tight labor market built on a narrow base rather than broad-based economic acceleration.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Billings MSA unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.2% Montana (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Yellowstone County job growth", "value": "+0.8%", "context": "vs +1.8% Flathead, +1.5% Gallatin County (2025)"}, {"label": "Yellowstone County avg weekly wage growth", "value": "+4.2%", "context": "to $1,285/week, vs $1,654 national average"}, {"label": "Montana real (inflation-adjusted) weekly wage", "value": "-2.6%", "context": "May 2026 vs year earlier, despite nominal gains"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Billings labor market is tight, not booming.", "body": "A 2.9% metro unemployment rate alongside a flat-to-declining Yellowstone County employment trend (-0.1% year-over-year through September 2025) suggests low joblessness reflects limited labor supply growth, not surging demand. Commerce leaders should read low unemployment here as a capacity constraint signal, not an expansion green light."}, {"headline": "Healthcare is doing most of the region's heavy lifting.", "body": "Montana added over 1,200 healthcare jobs statewide in 2025, with hospital employment up more than 900 \u2014 the largest gain since 2016 \u2014 while mining fell nearly 13% following the Sibanye-Stillwater closure. Yellowstone County's modest 0.8% job growth likely tracks this same healthcare concentration, making the sector a disproportionate share of the metro's economic resilience."}, {"headline": "Local wage gains may be outrunning what paychecks actually buy.", "body": "Yellowstone County's 4.2% weekly wage growth looks strong against the national 3.5% figure, but statewide inflation-adjusted weekly wages actually fell 2.6% as of May 2026. Nominal wage headlines in local reporting may overstate real purchasing power gains for area consumers and business customers."}, {"headline": "Four counties carry Montana's urban growth story \u2014 Yellowstone is one.", "body": "Only Flathead, Gallatin, Yellowstone, and Silver Bow posted 2025 job growth among Montana's urban counties, with Yellowstone's 0.8% trailing Flathead's 1.8% and Gallatin's 1.5%. Commerce leaders benchmarking Billings against peer Montana metros should note it is growing, but at the slower end of the state's limited growth cohort."}], "local_conditions": "Billings MSA unemployment held at 2.9% in August against a national rate of 4.1%, with job growth concentrated almost entirely in healthcare while mining, manufacturing, and government payrolls stayed flat or contracted statewide. Yellowstone County's 4.2% year-over-year wage growth to $1,285 weekly outpaced the Montana average, but national CPI running near 3.4% against 3.0% national wage growth signals the local wage cushion is thinner than headline numbers suggest.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment alongside flat statewide employment (-1,400 jobs year-over-year) points to a labor market that is full but not expanding \u2014 a signal for commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment timing rather than a hiring-urgency story. Public-sector stability in Yellowstone County, one of only four Montana urban counties with 2025 job growth (+0.8%), offers a steadier anchor for local economic planning than state or national government trends, which are shedding payroll. Consider evaluating expansion or investment timelines against sector-specific momentum \u2014 healthcare and construction locally, rather than the broader flat employment picture \u2014 to avoid reading a single aggregate number as the whole story.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Montana's 58,000-person labor force exclusion pool (childcare constraints plus underemployment) represents 6% of the state's labor force. Watch whether any state or local childcare policy movement shows up in Yellowstone County labor force participation data over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (3,562 notices affecting over 313,000 workers as of late September), though Montana itself shows minimal exposure with only 4 notices affecting 173 workers statewide. A material local filing would be a meaningful break from the current pattern and worth flagging quickly."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth has slowed sharply \u2014 29,000 added in September versus a 45,000 average, with downward revisions to July and August. Billings' healthcare-led growth has so far decoupled from this national softening, but a continued national slowdown bears watching for spillover into consumer-facing metro sectors."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Real average hourly earnings nationally turned negative year-over-year for the first time since 2021. Local commerce leaders should track whether Yellowstone County's reported wage gains hold up against Montana's own inflation-adjusted wage figures when Q2 2026 county data is released."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27930.0, "metro_p50": 33178.2, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25424.0, "metro_p50": 29174.0, "metro_p75": 31987.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33822.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40430.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57000.0, "metro_p50": 83304.0, "metro_p75": 92989.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32300.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 41775.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 74880.0, "metro_p75": 94640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35366.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40189.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29821.25, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39780.0, "metro_p50": 45386.0, "metro_p75": 51376.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35457.5, "metro_p50": 42877.4, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67910.0, "metro_p50": 72545.8, "metro_p75": 78420.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90612.0, "metro_p50": 110147.0, "metro_p75": 116934.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84872.0, "metro_p50": 141347.0, "metro_p75": 164665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84833.0, "metro_p50": 99917.6, "metro_p75": 158269.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51120.0, "metro_p50": 59752.0, "metro_p75": 66383.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74914.0, "metro_p50": 80680.4, "metro_p75": 82988.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48000.0, "metro_p50": 65172.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57995.6, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73678.5, "metro_p50": 96224.0, "metro_p75": 101982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31980.0, "metro_p50": 42871.0, "metro_p75": 56437.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63671.0, "metro_p50": 93495.0, "metro_p75": 115572.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45691.25, "metro_p50": 48404.8, "metro_p75": 49567.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70545.0, "metro_p50": 88791.2, "metro_p75": 95277.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60935.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70195.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37674.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64073.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 63627.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55493.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 86669.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60409.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32484.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67638.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:36.416232+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/billings-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}