{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 120, "label": "Bend, OR MSA", "slug": "bend-or-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:25:15.614780+00:00", "headline": "Bend's jobless rate falls as its labor force shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Bend metro unemployment eased to 4.8% in September even as the county lost 1,520 nonfarm jobs over the year, while local advertised pay grew roughly 4.0% \u2014 well ahead of a state that now ranks 30th nationally for wage growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bend MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Down from 4.9% in Aug.; vs. 4.1% U.S., 5.0% Oregon"}, {"label": "Deschutes County annual job change", "value": "-1,520 jobs", "context": "Unadjusted basis, year-over-year, despite falling jobless rate"}, {"label": "Bend posted salary growth", "value": "+4.0% y/y", "context": "Metro median $54,350 vs. Oregon's broader wage stagnation"}, {"label": "Oregon national wage-growth rank", "value": "30th", "context": "2020-2026 cumulative, down from historical top-5 status"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Bend's falling unemployment rate hides a shrinking labor force.", "body": "County-level nonfarm jobs fell by 1,520 unadjusted over the year even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.8%, a pattern consistent with workers exiting the labor force. Commerce leaders evaluating the metro's growth capacity should treat the improving rate as only part of the story."}, {"headline": "Bend wages are outrunning the state average by a wide margin.", "body": "Bend's posted salaries grew roughly 4.0% year-over-year to a $54,350 median, bucking the statewide wage malaise that has Oregon ranked 30th nationally for wage growth since 2020. That divergence positions Bend as a relative bright spot for regional investment and relocation decisions, even as the broader state loses competitive ground."}, {"headline": "PacificSource layoffs underscore health insurance sector volatility.", "body": "A 134-worker WARN notice spanning Bend, Springfield, Salem and Portland marks the insurer's fourth layoff round since September 2025, even as healthcare and social assistance jobs grew 3.8% statewide over the year. The split signals that insurance administration and direct patient care are moving in opposite directions \u2014 a distinction worth tracking separately in sector analysis."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay signals a stronger local construction and housing cycle.", "body": "HVAC technician advertised pay rose to a $93,600 metro median, a significant year-over-year gain well above the $71,406 national figure, while construction laborer pay also climbed. Both trends track with statewide construction's 2,000-job gain in September and point to building-sector momentum as a leading indicator for the metro's broader economic trajectory."}], "local_conditions": "Bend metro unemployment eased to 4.8% in September from 4.9% in August, improving even as Deschutes County shed 1,520 nonfarm jobs on an unadjusted basis over the year \u2014 a divergence consistent with seasonal tourism patterns. Local advertised pay growth of roughly 4.0% year-over-year outpaced Oregon's statewide wage softness, with construction, healthcare and leisure/hospitality providing the primary statewide offsets to manufacturing and government job losses.", "implications": "Bend's unemployment improvement alongside a declining labor force suggests the metro's tightness reflects fewer available workers, a dynamic commerce leaders should weigh against any expansion timeline that assumes ample local labor supply. Statewide wage stagnation \u2014 Oregon now ranks 30th nationally for wage growth since 2020 \u2014 makes Bend's above-average advertised pay growth a competitive differentiator worth tracking as a signal of relative economic health. Consider monitoring labor force participation data alongside unemployment, since a shrinking labor pool can mask underlying softness in a headline rate that looks reassuring on its own.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Oregon's October unemployment figures publish November 18 and will clarify whether Bend's September improvement to 4.8% reflects a durable trend or a one-month blip tied to seasonal tourism wind-down."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "PacificSource's fourth layoff round in 14 months, with Bend among the affected sites, warrants tracking for whether displaced insurance-administration workers register in local labor force participation data or exit the market entirely."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Oregon's minimum wage increases take effect July 1, 2027, but early-2027 budget planning by retail and hospitality-heavy employers in Bend typically begins in this window \u2014 a useful proxy for local business sentiment heading into next year."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide labor force contraction tied to accelerating baby boomer retirements may show up first in Deschutes County's household survey data, given the county's above-average median age relative to Oregon overall."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29553.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39998.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28963.75, "metro_p50": 34988.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 75060.0, "metro_p75": 84503.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32059.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38052.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60874.0, "metro_p50": 87255.4, "metro_p75": 105040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31982.0, "metro_p50": 40841.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 48339.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 31676.5, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 40335.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42740.0, "metro_p50": 49920.0, "metro_p75": 55422.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40815.5, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81120.0, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97360.5, "metro_p50": 113612.0, "metro_p75": 118820.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119622.0, "metro_p50": 158247.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95177.0, "metro_p50": 100827.0, "metro_p75": 106599.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60261.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73429.5, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64140.0, "metro_p50": 69708.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53500.0, "metro_p50": 68208.0, "metro_p75": 79713.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74251.25, "metro_p50": 84721.6, "metro_p75": 97465.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40040.0, "metro_p50": 53706.0, "metro_p75": 71832.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 74550.0, "metro_p75": 91500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 89000.0, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82917.0, "metro_p50": 94801.8, "metro_p75": 106024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58311.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 64317.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37972.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47112.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 75720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50517.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72181.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:41.982716+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}