{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 120, "label": "Bend, OR MSA", "slug": "bend-or-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:36.544509+00:00", "headline": "Bend outpaces Oregon, but the gains are narrowing to one sector.", "headline_summary": "Bend's 4.3% unemployment rate continues to beat Oregon's 5.1% statewide figure, but softening professional-services employment and a national real-wage gap (3.0% wage growth versus 3.4% inflation) suggest the metro's advantage is concentrated in construction and healthcare rather than broad-based.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bend MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.3%", "context": "vs 5.1% Oregon, 4.1%-4.2% national"}, {"label": "Bend job postings growth", "value": "+4.0% YoY", "context": "One of only two growing Oregon metros"}, {"label": "National wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "First real-wage decline in two years"}, {"label": "Oregon statewide payroll change", "value": "-16,100 jobs YoY", "context": "Oregon ranks 48th nationally for job growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Bend keeps outperforming Oregon, but the gap is narrowing to watch.", "body": "A 4.3% metro unemployment rate against Oregon's 5.1% and the state's 48th-place national ranking for payroll growth still favors Bend, but the metro's own unemployment trajectory has drifted up from 3.7% in 2023 to the 4.3%-4.9% range since late 2025. The direction matters more than the gap for anyone forecasting local momentum a year out."}, {"headline": "Construction wage gains track a sector carrying the metro's momentum.", "body": "Construction Laborer advertised pay rose moderately to a $44,720 metro median, consistent with construction posting one of the only employment gains in Oregon's August report (700 jobs) and in Bend specifically. Public infrastructure and private building activity appear to be the more durable local growth signal this quarter, not broad-based expansion."}, {"headline": "Professional and technical pay softness mirrors a national white-collar split.", "body": "Software Engineer, Data Engineer, Financial Analyst, and Operations Manager advertised pay all moved down significantly or moderately in Bend this month, echoing the national pattern of health care and construction gains against financial-activities contraction. Commerce leaders should treat this as consistent with a structural shift in which sectors drive regional income growth, not a one-month anomaly."}, {"headline": "Healthcare pay premiums widen Bend's cost-of-service gap with the nation.", "body": "Registered Nurse advertised pay sits at a $112,462 metro median versus $102,581 nationally, and healthcare practitioner roles broadly pay well above national benchmarks locally. For public-sector budget planners and commerce groups tracking service costs, this premium reflects sustained local demand for care capacity as the sector added 10,200 jobs statewide over the past year."}], "local_conditions": "Bend metro's unemployment rate held at 4.3% in August, nearly a full point below Oregon's statewide 5.1% and tracking the nation's 4.1% to 4.2% range, even as job postings grew 4.0% year-over-year in a quarter when most Oregon metros saw postings decline. Momentum appears concentrated in healthcare, construction, and hospitality-adjacent sectors while professional and business services employment eased to 11,390 jobs in August, consistent with the white-collar softness showing up in state and national data.", "implications": "Divergence between Bend's resilient headline numbers and softening professional-services employment suggests the local economy's strength is uneven across sectors rather than broad-based, a distinction that matters for anyone reading Bend as a uniformly hot market. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment should treat construction, healthcare, and hospitality as the metro's demonstrated growth engines while watching whether professional services stabilizes or continues contracting alongside the statewide trend. Consider reviewing sector-specific postings data before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business conditions from any single indicator.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS metro-level data for September, due September 30 with a full state update October 14, will show whether Bend's unemployment edge over Oregon persists or narrows further. Watch particularly whether the metro's gradual upward drift in joblessness since 2023 continues."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Oregon's unemployed-to-job-vacancy ratio has been rising since 2023 as statewide vacancies shrink; whether Bend's Q1 postings growth (up 4.0% year-over-year, one of only two Oregon metros gaining) holds into Q3 data will indicate whether the metro remains an exception or converges with the state."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Professional and business services lost 1,100 jobs statewide in August and declined locally in Bend as well; sustained softness here alongside falling advertised pay for analyst and engineering roles would suggest the metro's tech and professional-services base is contracting rather than pausing."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the first real-wage erosion in two years; if that gap persists into Bend's local wage data, consumer spending capacity across retail, hospitality, and services could soften even where employment holds steady."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29553.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29300.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33387.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55905.0, "metro_p50": 72341.0, "metro_p75": 82706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32638.0, "metro_p50": 37461.0, "metro_p75": 43920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38045.75, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49140.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60828.0, "metro_p50": 87505.6, "metro_p75": 105040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31942.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 45136.0, "metro_p75": 48339.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 31559.5, "metro_p50": 37209.0, "metro_p75": 40447.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42488.0, "metro_p50": 49920.0, "metro_p75": 56295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38945.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81120.0, "metro_p50": 85280.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96072.0, "metro_p50": 112462.0, "metro_p75": 116548.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119622.0, "metro_p50": 156765.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96782.0, "metro_p50": 103563.8, "metro_p75": 106755.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59419.5, "metro_p50": 69008.8, "metro_p75": 79580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72207.5, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61826.0, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 83652.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53257.0, "metro_p50": 69195.0, "metro_p75": 79713.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73495.0, "metro_p50": 84271.0, "metro_p75": 95505.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40040.0, "metro_p50": 54750.0, "metro_p75": 72800.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57218.75, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 87497.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 79475.2, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82917.0, "metro_p50": 94848.0, "metro_p75": 104114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57492.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57653.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37324.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 46956.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 74550.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52055.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38212.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72181.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:35.005191+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bend-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}