{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 66, "label": "Bellingham, WA MSA", "slug": "bellingham-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:25:10.426898+00:00", "headline": "Bellingham's labor market holds steady as Washington's contracts.", "headline_summary": "Whatcom County unemployment near 3.6% in July stood well below Washington's 4.8% statewide rate and the 4.1% national figure, even as the state shed 15,400 jobs in September and retail and hospitality traffic softened locally.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Whatcom County unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "vs 4.5% statewide, 4.4% national (July 2026)"}, {"label": "Washington monthly job change", "value": "-15,400", "context": "Sept 2026, seasonally adjusted (ESD)"}, {"label": "Washington WARN filings", "value": "16,776 workers", "context": "Highest of any US state, as of Oct 8, 2026"}, {"label": "Projected NW Washington job growth", "value": "0.81%", "context": "2024\u20132029 cumulative (ESD)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Bellingham's jobless rate undercuts the state story.", "body": "Whatcom County's 3.6% July rate contrasts with Washington's 4.8% and the national 4.1%, suggesting the metro's institutional base \u2014 healthcare, higher education, public sector \u2014 is cushioning it against the statewide 15,400-job September decline. Economic development planning should treat this gap as a structural advantage with staying power."}, {"headline": "Retail and hospitality are absorbing the local slowdown.", "body": "Reduced tourist and cross-border commerce traffic has pulled down retail trade and leisure/hospitality employment even as the broader county unemployment rate stayed low. Advertised pay for food service work locally ($45,240) has risen even as hiring activity in the sector softens, consistent with employers needing to pay more to fill fewer but harder-to-staff roles."}, {"headline": "Construction wages are easing while electricians and HVAC pay climbs.", "body": "Construction laborer pay is down moderately in Bellingham ($46,384) even as electrician ($88,880) and HVAC technician ($77,584) pay rise, a divergence that may suggest specialized trades tied to infrastructure and energy work are tightening while general labor demand softens. Commerce and development leaders tracking construction-dependent projects should watch this split and avoid treating the sector as uniformly cooling."}, {"headline": "Projected job growth through 2029 is slow but steady.", "body": "Northwest Washington's job market is projected to grow just 0.81% from 2024 to 2029, a pace that implies Bellingham's low unemployment reflects labor-force constraint as much as economic strength. Investment decisions premised on rapid local labor-force expansion warrant a longer time horizon."}], "local_conditions": "Whatcom County's unemployment rate sat near 3.6% in July before broader seasonal softening, well below the 4.8% statewide rate and the 4.1% national figure, even as Washington's labor force contracted and the state shed 15,400 jobs in September. Bellingham's economy continues to lean on PeaceHealth, Western Washington University, BP Cherry Point, and public-sector employment for stability, while retail trade and leisure/hospitality have absorbed the brunt of reduced tourist and cross-border commerce traffic this year.", "implications": "Local unemployment running below state and national rates signals a labor pool Bellingham employers cannot take for granted, even amid Washington's broader job losses \u2014 institutional anchors like healthcare and higher education appear to be insulating the metro from the volatility hitting Seattle tech and statewide manufacturing. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment should weigh that tight local labor availability coexists with soft consumer-facing sectors, meaning capital projects tied to construction or skilled trades may face different conditions than retail or hospitality ventures. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether the county's labor force contraction mirrors the statewide pattern, which would tighten availability further regardless of local demand signals.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Washington's labor force has contracted for three straight months even as unemployment falls, a pattern state economists attribute to fewer people participating in the labor force. Watch whether Whatcom County mirrors this trend in upcoming ESD releases, which would tighten already-thin local labor availability."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Retail and hospitality job losses tied to reduced tourist and cross-border traffic have not yet shown up as a measurable swing in metro-wide unemployment. A further pullback in consumer-facing sectors could test whether Bellingham's institutional employment base can keep absorbing the slack."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings remain elevated, led by agriculture, technology, and food/hospitality sectors, with Washington topping the national registry at 16,776 affected workers as of early October. No major Bellingham-specific WARN filings have surfaced this month, but any announcement would be a notable break from the metro's relative stability."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Washington's minimum wage rises to $17.73 per hour on January 1, 2027, a 3.5% increase that will touch retail, food service, and hospitality employers already managing soft consumer traffic. Commerce leaders in these sectors should factor the wage floor increase into early 2027 cost planning now."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38178.0, "metro_p50": 41288.0, "metro_p75": 44855.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29345.25, "metro_p50": 39790.0, "metro_p75": 43815.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39968.75, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66375.0, "metro_p50": 77263.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34287.0, "metro_p50": 38893.0, "metro_p75": 39790.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 46384.0, "metro_p75": 53040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70720.0, "metro_p50": 88879.6, "metro_p75": 104000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42775.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39790.0, "metro_p50": 45240.0, "metro_p75": 45240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 55120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42305.0, "metro_p50": 47944.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64719.0, "metro_p50": 77584.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83273.0, "metro_p50": 104000.0, "metro_p75": 110000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 129166.0, "metro_p50": 169445.0, "metro_p75": 187138.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99196.0, "metro_p50": 141962.0, "metro_p75": 157798.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60978.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 92750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81418.0, "metro_p50": 101381.0, "metro_p75": 109814.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59000.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 89899.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45010.5, "metro_p50": 62485.0, "metro_p75": 74241.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83648.0, "metro_p50": 101095.0, "metro_p75": 112134.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39975.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 48632.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 76654.4, "metro_p75": 89461.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 76250.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84378.0, "metro_p50": 101511.8, "metro_p75": 112400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 61360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 44242.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 41955.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 63211.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52837.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39790.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 75959.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:39.762822+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}