{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 66, "label": "Bellingham, WA MSA", "slug": "bellingham-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:31.104162+00:00", "headline": "Bellingham unemployment spikes, outpacing job creation by three to one.", "headline_summary": "Whatcom County's jobless rate jumped from 3.6% to 4.5% in August \u2014 the sharpest monthly rise in over two years \u2014 as 989 new unemployed residents overwhelmed 360 added jobs.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Whatcom County unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Up from 3.6% in July, largest jump in 2+ years"}, {"label": "Jobs added vs. new unemployed", "value": "360 vs. 989", "context": "New jobless far outpaced new positions in August"}, {"label": "Washington state unemployment rate", "value": "4.9%", "context": "Second straight monthly decline, vs 4.1% US rate"}, {"label": "Bellingham minimum wage", "value": "$19.13/hr", "context": "$2.00 above WA state minimum of $17.13"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Bellingham's August jobless jump outpaces anything seen in two years.", "body": "The rate moved from 3.6% to 4.5% in a single month, the sharpest increase since mid-2024, driven by unemployed residents entering the count faster than the 360 jobs added locally. One month does not confirm a trend, but the size of the move warrants tracking against September data before drawing conclusions about the metro's trajectory."}, {"headline": "Local wage floor now diverges sharply from the state minimum.", "body": "Bellingham's $19.13 minimum wage sits $2.00 above Washington's statewide rate, a gap that creates a distinct cost environment for labor-intensive local sectors like retail and food service even as statewide hiring cools. Commerce leaders comparing Bellingham to other Washington metros should treat this as a structural, not cyclical, difference in local cost conditions."}, {"headline": "County-level job losses in 2025 were the worst among large WA counties.", "body": "Whatcom County posted the largest over-the-year employment decline (-1.4%) of any large Washington county through December 2025, a signal that predates this year's national slowdown. That track record suggests local softness may have structural roots beyond the current national hiring pullback, worth distinguishing when benchmarking the metro against statewide narratives."}, {"headline": "Education and health services remain the metro's stabilizing sector.", "body": "Statewide, education and health services added 10,300 jobs even as retail and information lost ground, a pattern broadly consistent with Bellingham's own historically stable public and health-sector employment base. For local economic development planning, this sector continues to function as a buffer against broader softness elsewhere in the basket."}], "local_conditions": "Whatcom County's non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped from 3.6% to 4.5% in August, the largest single-month increase in more than two years, as 989 newly unemployed residents outpaced the addition of 360 jobs and 1,349 new labor force entrants. That divergence, layered onto a state backdrop of back-to-back monthly job losses and a local minimum wage of $19.13 (now $2.00 above the state floor), suggests Bellingham's labor market is absorbing both a national hiring slowdown and a distinct local cost-of-labor adjustment at the same time.", "implications": "Rising local unemployment paired with a labor force that is still growing points to more job seekers than open positions \u2014 a dynamic that typically signals softening consumer demand ahead rather than a tightening of available workers. For commerce leaders weighing expansion or capital investment in Whatcom County, the combination of elevated local wage floors and cooling regional job growth argues for closer attention to local consumer spending capacity before committing to growth timelines. Current conditions suggest monitoring Bellingham-specific retail and services job postings over the next quarter as a leading indicator of whether this is a one-month statistical spike or the start of a sustained slowdown.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "September's Whatcom County unemployment reading, due in mid-October, will clarify whether August's 3.6%-to-4.5% jump was a statistical outlier or the start of a trend. A second consecutive increase would materially change the metro's momentum narrative."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Washington's WARN filings have been heaviest in September statewide, and five employers notified the state of nearly 600 planned layoffs across tech, manufacturing, fulfillment, and casino operations in late August and early September. Track whether any of these notices touch Whatcom County directly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Real wages are eroding statewide, with wage growth at 3.1% against inflation near 3.5%, a gap that compresses local household purchasing power. Bellingham retailers and service providers may see softer discretionary spending if this gap persists into the holiday shopping season."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide education and health services added over 10,000 jobs even as other sectors weakened, a pattern that has historically supported Bellingham's labor market given its concentration of health and education employers. Watch whether this sector continues to offset weakness elsewhere locally through year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36969.5, "metro_p50": 40695.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28379.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43149.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62732.0, "metro_p50": 73523.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34391.0, "metro_p50": 38892.0, "metro_p75": 39790.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 53040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69680.0, "metro_p50": 89359.2, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 41038.0, "metro_p75": 42874.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41995.0, "metro_p50": 46197.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40367.5, "metro_p50": 45240.0, "metro_p75": 45240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 55328.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41735.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 52541.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 64272.0, "metro_p75": 65520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83273.0, "metro_p50": 104000.0, "metro_p75": 115185.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 125000.0, "metro_p50": 165593.6, "metro_p75": 183300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99264.0, "metro_p50": 142500.0, "metro_p75": 158888.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63820.25, "metro_p50": 80704.0, "metro_p75": 94560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81813.0, "metro_p50": 101200.0, "metro_p75": 107252.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70720.0, "metro_p50": 83500.0, "metro_p75": 83500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45742.0, "metro_p50": 62389.2, "metro_p75": 74241.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79388.5, "metro_p50": 100489.0, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 48620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58000.0, "metro_p50": 75608.4, "metro_p75": 88500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84257.0, "metro_p50": 102200.0, "metro_p75": 112400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60968.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42224.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 41558.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 63000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52789.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39790.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 74152.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:33.652144+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bellingham-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}