{"schema_version": 1, "id": "bay-city-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 81, "label": "Bay City, MI MSA", "slug": "bay-city-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:24:59.542693+00:00", "headline": "Bay City jobs shrink fastest in Michigan while trades wages climb.", "headline_summary": "Bay City posted the steepest monthly employment decline (-2.2%) of any Michigan metro in October even as unemployment held at 4.7%, while electrician and manufacturing pay rose significantly against a workforce down 1.9% since 2016.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.7%", "context": "vs 5.0% Michigan, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Monthly employment change", "value": "-2.2%", "context": "Steepest decline among Michigan metros, Oct. 2026"}, {"label": "Workforce decline since 2016", "value": "-1.9%", "context": "Largest among major Michigan metros"}, {"label": "Michigan statewide labor force loss", "value": "-158,000", "context": "Over past year; participation fell to 58.5%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Headline unemployment masks a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Bay City's 4.7% unemployment rate sits below what the -2.2% monthly employment decline would suggest, because departing workers are leaving the labor force instead of filing for benefits. A metro that looks stable on unemployment alone may be quietly losing its labor base."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and skilled trades wages are rising against a shrinking base.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay and electrician pay both show significant local increases, outpacing flat national manufacturing wage trends. That combination \u2014 rising pay, shrinking workforce \u2014 is consistent with employers bidding up compensation for a smaller pool of available trades labor amid constrained demand overall."}, {"headline": "Bay City's decline outpaces the state's own participation slide.", "body": "Michigan's labor force fell 158,000 over the past year and statewide participation dropped to 58.5%, but Bay City's 1.9% workforce decline since 2016 and -1.1% year-over-year employment change place it among the state's more pronounced cases. Local economic planning should treat this as a structural trend line that extends beyond any single month."}, {"headline": "White-collar pay softness diverges sharply from trades strength locally.", "body": "Accountant pay is down significantly in the metro and Business Analyst and Operations Manager pay are down moderate-to-significant, even as registered nurse and electrician pay rise sharply. Bay City's business climate looks bifurcated \u2014 pressure in office-based professional roles alongside tightness in healthcare and skilled trades."}], "local_conditions": "Bay City's unemployment rate climbed to 4.7% in October, with employment contracting 2.2% month-over-month \u2014 the sharpest monthly decline among Michigan metros \u2014 even as total payroll jobs held little changed, a pattern consistent with workers leaving the labor force amid limited mass layoffs. Year-over-year employment is down 1.1% and the metro's workforce has shrunk 1.9% since 2016, pointing to a structural, demographically driven contraction in labor supply distinct from a cyclical demand shock.", "implications": "Flat payrolls alongside a shrinking labor force signal a metro economy holding steady on output while losing the workers to sustain it long-term \u2014 a dynamic that should concern economic development planners more than month-to-month unemployment swings. Advertised pay gains in manufacturing production work (+significant) and skilled trades like electricians (+significant) suggest employers are competing for a thinning pool of available workers in physically demanding roles, a leading indicator of capacity constraints on local business expansion. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or expansion plans should weigh Bay City's workforce trajectory against neighboring metros before assuming current wage levels reflect sustainable labor availability.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's 10-year outlook projects only 18,320 net new jobs statewide through 2034, with manufacturing expected to shed the most positions. Bay City's current manufacturing wage strength may not be durable if that statewide contraction reaches the metro."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Michigan employers filed 39 WARN notices in 2026 (6,040 workers affected), a 33% decline from 2025, but seven companies have issued notices since Q2 affecting 1,677 jobs. Watch whether any Bay City-area facilities appear on future filings given the metro's already-elevated employment decline."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Healthcare continues to lead private-sector hiring nationally and advertised pay for registered nurses and CNAs/home health aides is rising moderately-to-significantly in the metro. Bay City's aging demographic profile makes healthcare capacity a direct economic development and public-service planning question that extends well beyond a single sector trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Michigan's statewide payroll contraction was concentrated in professional and business services and private education/health services in Q3. If that pattern extends to Bay City, it would compound an already-shrinking local workforce and merits tracking in next month's metro-level release."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24115.0, "metro_p50": 30312.0, "metro_p75": 34986.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25737.5, "metro_p50": 28558.0, "metro_p75": 29732.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 34231.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 85536.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29487.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 38187.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61984.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32684.75, "metro_p50": 37174.8, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30270.25, "metro_p50": 36151.4, "metro_p75": 42078.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 28558.0, "metro_p50": 31301.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39328.8, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37038.25, "metro_p50": 43832.0, "metro_p75": 46849.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 67406.0, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87386.0, "metro_p50": 104852.8, "metro_p75": 110654.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54987.0, "metro_p50": 149178.4, "metro_p75": 176293.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136328.0, "metro_p75": 154349.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48838.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71896.75, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 99913.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55886.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 79943.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58020.0, "metro_p75": 69000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 75349.0, "metro_p75": 92183.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 55072.0, "metro_p75": 57009.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 62812.8, "metro_p75": 96797.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79686.0, "metro_p50": 79752.0, "metro_p75": 79851.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 78326.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 56879.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33947.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53569.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 162300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 47678.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 80314.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78324.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30566.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64815.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Michigan State Office of Management and Budget", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bay City recorded a 2.2% month-over-month employment decline, the steepest in Michigan"}, {"source_name": "Michigan State Office of Management and Budget", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bay City workforce decline of 1.9% since October 2016, largest among major Michigan metros"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan unemployment held at 5.0% in September with labor force down 26,000 in the month"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data & Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan labor force fell 158,000 over the past year; participation rate fell to 58.5%"}, {"source_name": "Michigan WARN Act Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan WARN filings totaled 39 notices affecting 6,040 workers in 2026, down 33% from 2025"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data & Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan projected to add only 18,320 net jobs through 2034, with manufacturing shedding most"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "bay-city-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "bay-city-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "bay-city-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:35.358979+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bay-city-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/bay-city-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}