{"schema_version": 1, "id": "barnstable-town-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 104, "label": "Barnstable Town, MA MSA", "slug": "barnstable-town-ma-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:43.852024+00:00", "headline": "Cape Cod's jobless rate falls for the season, not the year.", "headline_summary": "Barnstable County unemployment eased to 5.50% from 5.80% in July but remains above last August's 4.30%, even as Registered Nurse pay climbed to $123,984 while trades and logistics wages softened.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Barnstable County unemployment", "value": "5.50%", "context": "Down from 5.80% in July, up from 4.30% a year ago"}, {"label": "Massachusetts unemployment rate", "value": "4.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate in August"}, {"label": "National wage vs inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Average hourly earnings growth trails CPI"}, {"label": "Massachusetts WARN notices (2026)", "value": "72 notices, 7,343 workers", "context": "Down 11% from 2025 statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Cape Cod's jobless rate swings are seasonal, not sudden deterioration.", "body": "County unemployment fell month-over-month to 5.50% but sits a full point above last August, a pattern consistent with the tourism economy's annual staffing cycle rather than a new shock. Commerce leaders should weigh this against the statewide trend, where all twelve Massachusetts labor market areas also improved month-over-month in August."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wages are doing the heavy lifting locally.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay climbed to $123,984 even as six other tracked roles posted declines, mirroring the statewide pattern where health care and education remain the only sectors adding jobs while professional services contract. For a metro anchored by Cape Cod Healthcare, this suggests institutional employers are insulating a meaningful share of local wage growth from broader softness."}, {"headline": "Trades and logistics pay softening may track tourism-season wind-down.", "body": "Construction Laborer, HVAC Technician, Delivery Driver, and Warehouse pay all moved down this month, a combination consistent with the seasonal contraction in Cape Cod's visitor-driven economy rather than a broad local slowdown. Commerce leaders should watch whether these figures stabilize once October data isolates post-season baseline conditions."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap adds a layer of caution to local reads.", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, meaning real purchasing power is under pressure even in metros like Barnstable where nominal pay in some roles is rising. A healthcare pay gain locally does not guarantee real income growth once inflation is factored in."}], "local_conditions": "Barnstable County unemployment eased to 5.50% in August from 5.80% in July but remains well above the 4.30% reading a year earlier, consistent with the seasonal tourism cycle that drives Cape Cod payrolls down as summer staffing winds back. Advertised pay across the metro's basket skews toward modest declines \u2014 construction, HVAC, delivery, and manufacturing roles all trended down this month \u2014 while healthcare wages (Registered Nurse up to $123,984) and customer service pay continued to climb, pointing to a bifurcated local economy where institutional employers add ground while tourism-adjacent and trades sectors soften.", "implications": "Cape Cod's unemployment rate running 1.2 points above the national rate, paired with declining advertised pay across six of the metro's trades and logistics roles, suggests the seasonal contraction this year is sharper than typical and worth distinguishing from a structural slowdown before drawing conclusions about business climate. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing should note that healthcare and public-sector-adjacent employers (Cape Cod Healthcare, Woods Hole Oceanographic, Cape Cod Community College) continue to anchor wage growth even as consumer-facing sectors retreat, a pattern that argues for watching October's unemployment release before treating August softness as a trend. Consider reviewing sector-level advertised pay data alongside the October 20 state release to confirm whether the seasonal pullback is tracking prior years or deepening.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Massachusetts releases September county-level unemployment data October 20, which will show whether Barnstable's seasonal unemployment decline continues or whether the gap versus last year's 4.30% reading widens further."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide professional, scientific, and technical services employment fell 5.8% in 2026 \u2014 a trend with limited direct Cape Cod footprint today but relevant if Boston-area contraction spills into remote or hybrid roles tied to the Cape's growing year-round population."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Massachusetts WARN notices are down 11% year over year statewide, with no major Barnstable-area filings reported this cycle; continued absence of local notices would support a seasonal rather than structural read on the county's unemployment uptick."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth has slowed sharply (29,000 in September against a 45,000 trailing average), a signal commerce leaders should track for whether Cape Cod's winter off-season proves deeper than typical given softer national consumer demand heading into 2027."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31723.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37752.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30477.0, "metro_p50": 39352.6, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49305.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 76960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33930.0, "metro_p50": 34898.0, "metro_p75": 40398.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41504.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73139.0, "metro_p50": 83317.0, "metro_p75": 88175.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 40771.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36140.0, "metro_p50": 47726.0, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33313.0, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 48620.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39566.0, "metro_p50": 51126.0, "metro_p75": 56160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66074.0, "metro_p50": 74118.6, "metro_p75": 85678.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100146.0, "metro_p50": 123984.2, "metro_p75": 133319.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105193.75, "metro_p50": 130677.8, "metro_p75": 148939.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97792.0, "metro_p50": 100271.0, "metro_p75": 154954.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63440.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 73590.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77500.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 107500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66560.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49293.0, "metro_p50": 66000.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73750.0, "metro_p50": 94078.0, "metro_p75": 119583.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41745.0, "metro_p50": 63308.4, "metro_p75": 70967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67283.0, "metro_p50": 70823.0, "metro_p75": 73294.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57231.25, "metro_p50": 108597.2, "metro_p75": 113717.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83690.0, "metro_p50": 101853.0, "metro_p75": 114362.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 50548.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39998.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 50315.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 67500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66342.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67676.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "barnstable-town-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "barnstable-town-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "barnstable-town-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:27.627416+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/barnstable-town-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/barnstable-town-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}