{"schema_version": 1, "id": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 84, "label": "Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA", "slug": "baltimore-towson-md-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:26:10.122157+00:00", "headline": "Baltimore unemployment falls as payrolls quietly shrink.", "headline_summary": "Baltimore-area unemployment dropped to 3.9% in August, its lowest point since early 2026, even as metro payrolls ran 0.5% below year-ago levels and Baltimore City's jobless rate held at 5.5% versus 4.0% in Baltimore County.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "August 2026, lowest since early 2026"}, {"label": "Metro payroll employment", "value": "-0.5%", "context": "Year-over-year as of latest reading"}, {"label": "City vs. county unemployment", "value": "5.5% vs. 4.0%", "context": "Baltimore City vs. Baltimore County, Aug. 2026"}, {"label": "Maryland labor force participation", "value": "63.7%", "context": "vs. 61.8% national rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment and shrinking payrolls are telling different stories.", "body": "Household survey data shows Baltimore's jobless rate improving for a fourth straight month, while employer survey data shows payrolls still running below year-ago levels. State officials attribute part of the divergence to data collection volatility, a reminder that any single monthly figure deserves scrutiny before shaping investment or policy decisions."}, {"headline": "Baltimore City's unemployment rate runs 1.6 points above the county.", "body": "City unemployment at 5.5% versus 4.0% in Baltimore County suggests labor market conditions are not uniform across the metro, with implications for where commerce investment and workforce development resources may be most needed."}, {"headline": "Wage gains continue trailing inflation across the metro's hourly workforce.", "body": "Private-sector wages sit roughly 10% above pre-pandemic levels against a 17% rise in consumer prices, a gap consistent with the national pattern of real wage erosion and one that bears directly on consumer spending capacity in the local retail and services economy."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and food service job losses stand out against a resilient statewide trend.", "body": "Maryland's health care sector has been a statewide growth driver this year, making September's 2,400-job metro-level decline in health care and social assistance, alongside a 2,000-job drop in accommodation and food services, a local divergence worth tracking closely."}], "local_conditions": "Baltimore-Columbia-Towson's 3.9% unemployment rate (August 2026) sits at its lowest level since early in the year, yet metro payroll employment ran 0.5% below year-ago levels, with September losses concentrated in health care and social assistance (-2,400), accommodation and food services (-2,000), and arts and entertainment (-1,700). Private-sector wages have climbed roughly 10% since pre-pandemic levels but trail a 17% rise in consumer prices over the same span, a gap that continues to shape household purchasing power across the metro even as Baltimore County's unemployment rate (4.0%) and Baltimore City's (5.5%) diverge sharply within the same labor market.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside payroll contraction signals a metro where labor is tightening even as overall activity softens \u2014 a combination that complicates simple read-the-headline-number judgments about local economic health. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing should treat the city-county unemployment gap (5.5% versus 4.0%) as a signal that conditions vary meaningfully by submarket, since assuming one metro-wide trend risks missing local differences. Current conditions suggest reviewing sector-level data before drawing conclusions about overall business climate from the headline unemployment figure alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data reliability watch", "body": "Maryland officials have flagged BLS employer-survey volatility as a factor behind the state's conflicting unemployment and payroll figures. Expect revisions in coming months that could materially reshape the current read on metro job growth."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Baltimore's food service and hospitality payroll losses (-2,000 in September) arrive alongside flat-to-stable advertised pay for food service and retail roles locally, measured by job ads, which track demand and often cover several openings each, pointing to softening demand in those sectors."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Recent WARN filings at Aramark Campus (174 workers, Halethorpe) and Thriftbooks Global (136 workers) point to continued softening in logistics-adjacent and food-service-adjacent employment; watch whether filings accelerate into the holiday season."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Maryland's labor force participation rate (63.7%) remains well above the national rate (61.8%), a structural advantage for the metro's talent pool. Watch whether this resilience holds as payroll softness persists into Q4."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35256.0, "metro_p75": 38554.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34781.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59358.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 91884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33035.0, "metro_p50": 37778.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37334.0, "metro_p50": 42206.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 77495.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36685.0, "metro_p50": 44595.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39714.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31805.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37409.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36028.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38873.5, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63966.0, "metro_p50": 79073.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88023.0, "metro_p50": 98519.0, "metro_p75": 109720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 122957.0, "metro_p50": 153704.0, "metro_p75": 178520.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107613.0, "metro_p50": 148628.2, "metro_p75": 169292.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66535.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 89735.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78435.0, "metro_p50": 97111.0, "metro_p75": 105982.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63280.5, "metro_p50": 78461.0, "metro_p75": 88079.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50500.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 73654.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 91541.6, "metro_p75": 95352.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 59472.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68250.0, "metro_p50": 92550.0, "metro_p75": 120172.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 62990.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88037.5, "metro_p50": 110101.0, "metro_p75": 121950.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 128159.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 59280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 137384.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 84148.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 98798.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 77294.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:24.354714+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}