{"schema_version": 1, "id": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 84, "label": "Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA", "slug": "baltimore-towson-md-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:34.169665+00:00", "headline": "Baltimore holds steady while Maryland's job engine stalls.", "headline_summary": "Baltimore's 3.9% unemployment rate continues to outperform Maryland's 4.1% and the nation's 4.2%, but a statewide loss of 8,200 jobs in August and a 10-year-low 63.7% labor force participation rate suggest the region's advantage may be thinner than it looks.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Baltimore metro unemployment", "value": "3.9%", "context": "vs 4.1% Maryland, 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Maryland labor force participation", "value": "63.7%", "context": "10-year low, down from 63.8% in July"}, {"label": "Maryland August payroll change", "value": "-8,200 jobs", "context": "Reverses July's +10,200 gain"}, {"label": "Maryland 12-month net job change", "value": "-5,500 jobs", "context": "Despite +29,800 YTD gain through July"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Baltimore is outperforming Maryland, but the gap may be narrowing.", "body": "Metro unemployment near 3.9% beats the state's 4.1% and the national 4.2%, yet Maryland's 8,200-job August loss and a 12-month net loss of 5,500 jobs statewide suggest regional resilience is not guaranteed to hold if contractor-driven weakness spreads from Prince George's and Montgomery counties toward the Baltimore basin."}, {"headline": "Federal contracting losses are the story beneath the story.", "body": "Professional, scientific and technical services \u2014 the category covering federal contractors \u2014 has shed 11,500 jobs statewide since January 2025, the largest structural decline of any sector. Baltimore's own concentration of federal-adjacent employers (Social Security Administration, NSA-area contractors, defense-related firms) makes this a watch item even where local job counts still look stable."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in skilled trades outpace white-collar and retail roles locally.", "body": "Advertised pay for HVAC technicians and electricians is up significantly in the metro, consistent with national sector divergence favoring hands-on construction and skilled trades over office-based work. That pattern tracks continued building activity and infrastructure spending locally, a useful signal for development-focused commerce leaders assessing where private investment is concentrating."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation, not job counts, is the number to watch.", "body": "Maryland's participation rate fell to a 10-year low of 63.7% in August, a trend that constrains how much local businesses can expand without wage pressure even if job openings hold steady. A shrinking available workforce matters more to long-run local growth capacity than any single month's payroll count."}], "local_conditions": "Baltimore's metro unemployment rate held near 3.9% as of the most recently available BLS data, outperforming the 4.1% statewide and 4.2% national figures even as Maryland's broader labor market whipsawed \u2014 gaining 10,200 jobs in July before losing 8,200 in August, with professional and technical services still bleeding positions tied to federal contracting pullback. Local momentum appears to rest on health care and government payrolls, a cushion the state-level contractor losses and a 12-month statewide decline of 5,500 net jobs suggest is narrower than headline numbers imply.", "implications": "Flat-to-positive job counts in Baltimore proper, against a backdrop of statewide contractor losses and a 10-year-low Maryland labor force participation rate of 63.7%, point to an economy holding steady on paper while its underlying growth capacity \u2014 available workers and durable private-sector demand \u2014 erodes. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing should treat metro-level stability as provisional rather than a green light, since county-level data show employment declined in seven of Maryland's eight largest counties over the past year. Consider cross-referencing any local growth plan against county-specific labor force trends rather than metro or state topline figures alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Maryland's August job losses (-8,200) prove a one-month blip or the start of a trend echoing the state's weaker 12-month trajectory. A second consecutive monthly decline would undercut the narrative of Baltimore-area resilience."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Federal contractor employment losses, concentrated in Prince George's and Montgomery counties, have not yet fully shown up in Baltimore-specific data. Commerce leaders should track whether displaced contracting talent or firm relocations begin appearing in Baltimore-area commercial real estate and business registration activity."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "The $18/hour minimum wage for MAA contract workers at BWI, effective this fall, is a concrete policy data point worth tracking for its effect on airport-adjacent logistics and hospitality wage floors in Anne Arundel County."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% annually against 3.4% inflation \u2014 the first real-wage gap in two years. If that dynamic reaches Baltimore's wage data in coming months, it would signal softening local consumer purchasing power even amid stable employment counts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38605.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30740.5, "metro_p50": 33982.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34533.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58550.75, "metro_p50": 82279.0, "metro_p75": 91321.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32663.0, "metro_p50": 36338.0, "metro_p75": 40847.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37095.0, "metro_p50": 41860.4, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62167.0, "metro_p50": 75915.2, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36433.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49864.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39662.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31448.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37377.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35880.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38741.25, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 51763.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63967.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88023.0, "metro_p50": 98800.0, "metro_p75": 110779.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 122034.0, "metro_p50": 153703.0, "metro_p75": 177088.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107613.0, "metro_p50": 145047.0, "metro_p75": 167500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66414.0, "metro_p50": 79505.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78200.0, "metro_p50": 95348.2, "metro_p75": 105437.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63440.0, "metro_p50": 79552.0, "metro_p75": 88222.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62316.75, "metro_p50": 95023.2, "metro_p75": 95900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36806.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 59527.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67551.0, "metro_p50": 92307.0, "metro_p75": 118000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54311.0, "metro_p50": 85092.0, "metro_p75": 112230.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87407.0, "metro_p50": 110080.0, "metro_p75": 121366.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68251.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 127150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40372.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61069.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 136450.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 81150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 95680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 75000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35712.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 71403.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:24.794788+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/baltimore-towson-md-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}