{"schema_version": 1, "id": "az-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 56, "label": "AZ NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "az-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:22:51.451581+00:00", "headline": "Rural Arizona's labor force shrinks even as mining wages climb.", "headline_summary": "Nonmetro Arizona unemployment ranges from 3.1% in Greenlee to 7.8% in Apache, while statewide labor force participation has fallen for seven straight months and government payrolls (+22,200) are offsetting losses in construction and health care.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro county unemployment range", "value": "3.1%\u20137.8%", "context": "Greenlee vs. Apache County, September 2026"}, {"label": "Arizona labor force participation", "value": "59.9%", "context": "Down 2.2 pts YoY, 7th straight monthly decline"}, {"label": "Arizona statewide unemployment", "value": "4.9%", "context": "Vs. 4.2% national rate; unchanged 3 months"}, {"label": "Greenlee County weekly wage", "value": "$2,151", "context": "Highest among smaller AZ counties, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rural county unemployment spans a 4.7-point range.", "body": "Greenlee's 3.1% rate sits far below Apache's 7.8%, underscoring that 'nonmetropolitan Arizona' is not one economy but several, shaped by mining activity, tribal-land demographics, and distance from Phoenix's growth. Treating these counties as a single labor market risks masking where economic stress is concentrated."}, {"headline": "Labor force withdrawal looks like the state's defining trend.", "body": "Arizona's labor force contracted 3.2% year-over-year even as unemployment held near a post-pandemic high of 4.9%, a pattern consistent with people leaving the workforce while largely retaining jobs they already hold. For nonmetro counties with already-thin labor pools, continued withdrawal narrows the available base for any expansion-minded employer."}, {"headline": "Mining remains nonmetro Arizona's wage and growth bright spot.", "body": "Statewide mining employment grew 8.2% year-over-year, and Greenlee County \u2014 home to significant mining activity \u2014 posted the highest weekly wage among smaller counties at $2,151. This divergence from manufacturing's statewide losses suggests resource-sector counties retain a distinct growth advantage worth tracking separately from the rural aggregate."}, {"headline": "Government hiring is cushioning a cooling private sector.", "body": "State government payrolls rose 22,200 month-over-month even as construction and health care both lost jobs, a divergence that suggests public employment is currently absorbing some of the slack left by softening private-sector demand. For commerce leaders, this makes public-sector stability a more immediate backstop for local spending power than private hiring momentum."}], "local_conditions": "Arizona's nonmetropolitan counties show a wide unemployment band this fall, from 3.1% in Greenlee to 7.8% in Apache, reflecting how differently resource-dependent and tribal-land economies are weathering the state's slowdown. Statewide labor force participation has fallen for seven straight months and shrank 3.2% year-over-year through September, a contraction that appears to reflect demographic shifts and workforce withdrawal amid a loosening job market.", "implications": "Divergent county-level unemployment alongside a shrinking statewide labor force points to a workforce base that is both regionally uneven and structurally thinning, a combination that complicates any commerce expansion that assumes a stable local labor pool. Government payrolls added 22,200 jobs statewide even as construction and health care lost ground, suggesting public-sector activity is currently doing more to anchor regional economic stability than the private sector in rural counties. Civic and commerce leaders should consider evaluating county-level participation and wage trends separately, using them alongside statewide averages when assessing readiness for new investment or expansion in nonmetro areas.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "October employment data for Arizona's nonmetropolitan counties releases November 19, giving the first read on whether the labor force contraction seen through September continued or stabilized."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Labor force participation has declined for seven consecutive months statewide; a continuation would tighten available workforce capacity in rural counties already operating with thinner labor pools than Phoenix or Tucson."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Projected county-level job growth through 2027 ranges from 1.8% annually in Greenlee to flat in Apache and Navajo \u2014 a signal for economic development planners weighing where rural investment incentives may find the most responsive labor supply."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction advertised pay in the metro is up moderately even as statewide construction employment fell, a divergence worth monitoring to see whether it reflects a skills shortage in specific trades or a lag between wage-setting and headcount changes."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27241.0, "metro_p50": 30964.6, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28262.0, "metro_p50": 32199.2, "metro_p75": 33575.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31934.5, "metro_p50": 37584.2, "metro_p75": 40258.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66094.0, "metro_p50": 89820.0, "metro_p75": 96062.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30019.0, "metro_p50": 32040.0, "metro_p75": 33728.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36313.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 44343.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63964.0, "metro_p50": 77301.2, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32718.0, "metro_p50": 38374.4, "metro_p75": 40099.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31544.0, "metro_p50": 35516.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31354.0, "metro_p50": 34820.6, "metro_p75": 40289.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35390.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43789.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34410.0, "metro_p50": 40720.0, "metro_p75": 44460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 67494.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88863.0, "metro_p50": 112555.8, "metro_p75": 122534.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96073.0, "metro_p50": 123668.0, "metro_p75": 137953.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107153.5, "metro_p50": 145266.4, "metro_p75": 153788.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58987.0, "metro_p50": 68369.6, "metro_p75": 77496.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69545.0, "metro_p50": 83041.0, "metro_p75": 95772.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62736.25, "metro_p50": 90661.6, "metro_p75": 93521.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 60310.6, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70257.0, "metro_p50": 100592.0, "metro_p75": 112476.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38740.0, "metro_p50": 52525.0, "metro_p75": 59489.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62496.5, "metro_p50": 96192.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48452.5, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 64141.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70544.5, "metro_p50": 84308.4, "metro_p75": 85530.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39654.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 59021.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 87258.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 90221.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 93308.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34505.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65807.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity", "source_url": "https://oeo.az.gov", "statement": "Nonmetro Arizona county unemployment ranged from 3.1% (Greenlee) to 7.8% (Apache)"}, {"source_name": "Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity", "source_url": "https://oeo.az.gov", "statement": "Arizona labor force participation declined for seven consecutive months, down 2.2 points YoY"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov", "statement": "Arizona mining employment grew 8.2% year-over-year through June 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov", "statement": "Arizona government added 22,200 jobs month-over-month while construction and health care declined"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov", "statement": "Greenlee County reported highest weekly wage among smaller AZ counties at $2,151"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov", "statement": "Arizona statewide unemployment held at 4.9% for third consecutive month vs. 4.2% national"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "az-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "az-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "az-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:19.386459+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/az-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/az-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}