{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 49, "label": "AR NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:21:59.743268+00:00", "headline": "Rural Arkansas hits record employment as pay signals diverge.", "headline_summary": "Arkansas' 3.9% unemployment rate and record labor force sit alongside a 7.2% jobless rate in Phillips County and falling advertised pay for HVAC Technicians and Certified Nursing Assistants.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Arkansas unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "vs 4.2% national, 8th straight month of decline"}, {"label": "County unemployment spread", "value": "2.8%\u20137.2%", "context": "Madison County vs Phillips County, Aug. 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide wage withholding growth", "value": "+5.7% YoY", "context": "Arkansas Dept. of Finance, October report"}, {"label": "Arkansas nonfarm payrolls", "value": "1,354,400", "context": "Record high, +12,500 in September"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rural Arkansas labor market outperforms the nation on paper.", "body": "The 3.9% statewide unemployment rate compares favorably to the 4.2% national figure, and record labor force and employment levels indicate nonmetro Arkansas has not seen the softening evident in national white-collar sectors. This supports a generally positive read on regional economic resilience, even though nonmetro-specific unemployment data is not separately published by BLS."}, {"headline": "Government and health services are carrying payroll growth.", "body": "Statewide, government added 10,500 jobs and private education and health services added 3,600 in September, the two largest contributors to the 12,500 net gain. For nonmetro counties, where government and institutional employers often make up an outsized share of the local base, this points to public-sector stability as the primary stabilizing force this month."}, {"headline": "County-level unemployment gaps reveal uneven local capacity.", "body": "Madison County's 2.8% unemployment rate against Phillips County's 7.2% illustrates that a single statewide or nonmetro figure masks substantial variation. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions should give weight to county-specific labor availability alongside statewide averages."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay softness in several roles complicates the record-high narrative.", "body": "While state-level wage withholding is up 5.7% year-over-year, several locally advertised roles including HVAC Technician and Certified Nursing Assistant show declining median pay, a divergence worth monitoring as a potential early signal of uneven demand across occupational categories even amid strong aggregate indicators."}], "local_conditions": "Arkansas' nonmetropolitan counties continue to benefit from a statewide labor market running tighter than the national average, with the state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate holding at 3.9% in September against a national 4.2% and both the civilian labor force and employment levels reaching record highs. County-level data show wide dispersion across rural Arkansas, with Madison County at 2.8% unemployment alongside Phillips County at 7.2%, while statewide payroll gains concentrated in government (+10,500) and private education and health services (+3,600) suggest nonmetro economic stability is leaning primarily on public-sector and institutional employment.", "implications": "Record labor force and employment levels alongside a rising labor force participation rate point to continued workforce re-engagement in rural Arkansas, a trend relevant to commerce leaders assessing whether local labor supply can support expansion plans. Wage withholding growth of 5.7% year-over-year signals underlying income strength even as several nonmetro-relevant advertised pay categories (HVAC Technician, Software Engineer, Certified Nursing Assistant) show declines, indicating the benefits of overall momentum are not evenly distributed across occupations. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider evaluating county-level unemployment variation when assessing where local business investment or siting decisions are most likely to find available workers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS county-level unemployment data through September and October will clarify whether Phillips County and other high-unemployment nonmetro counties are narrowing the gap with the statewide 3.9% rate or falling further behind."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Continued strength in wage withholding (up 5.7% year-over-year per state fiscal data) will be an early indicator of whether nonmetro income growth is holding up as national wage growth lags inflation."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Advertised pay declines in several mid-skill and technical roles locally (HVAC Technician, Business Analyst, Data Engineer) warrant tracking over the next two months to determine whether this reflects a broader cooling in nonmetro technical and trades demand."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National labor force growth is slowing amid retirements and immigration policy effects; watch whether Arkansas' recent labor force participation gains (up two-tenths of a point year-over-year) continue or plateau, which would affect the pool of workers available to nonmetro employers across sectors."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21324.0, "metro_p50": 25354.0, "metro_p75": 27334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25211.0, "metro_p75": 26741.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30742.0, "metro_p50": 33782.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58641.0, "metro_p50": 79500.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25848.0, "metro_p50": 28305.0, "metro_p75": 30702.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30293.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.0, "metro_p50": 66898.0, "metro_p75": 69270.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29723.5, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 40306.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29221.0, "metro_p50": 34644.0, "metro_p75": 36305.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 27141.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29640.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37936.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30225.5, "metro_p50": 36673.0, "metro_p75": 40312.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 52856.0, "metro_p75": 56783.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78726.75, "metro_p50": 91668.0, "metro_p75": 100574.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89743.0, "metro_p50": 132966.8, "metro_p75": 142489.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85644.0, "metro_p50": 111048.4, "metro_p75": 124710.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53962.0, "metro_p50": 65129.0, "metro_p75": 73041.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73021.5, "metro_p50": 96668.0, "metro_p75": 99115.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48880.0, "metro_p50": 72041.6, "metro_p75": 86200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44697.0, "metro_p50": 61187.2, "metro_p75": 75103.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60059.0, "metro_p50": 76001.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29640.0, "metro_p50": 50161.0, "metro_p75": 54085.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54967.0, "metro_p50": 83396.4, "metro_p75": 106699.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46547.5, "metro_p50": 60781.2, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74647.0, "metro_p50": 83353.0, "metro_p75": 93794.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58819.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34771.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56951.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 95856.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57597.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 44773.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28838.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65339.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Commerce / BLS via Magnolia Reporter", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas unemployment held at 3.9% in September vs 4.2% national"}, {"source_name": "USAFacts / Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Phillips County 7.2% vs Madison County 2.8% unemployment"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wage withholding grew 5.7% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Commerce / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Government added 10,500 jobs, private education/health added 3,600"}, {"source_name": "Magnolia Reporter / Arkansas Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas nonfarm payrolls reached record 1,354,400"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2% in September"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:18:01.022797+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}