{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 49, "label": "AR NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:04.480727+00:00", "headline": "Rural Arkansas's unemployment average hides a widening county split.", "headline_summary": "Statewide unemployment fell to 3.9% in August, but Desha County sits at 7.2% against Madison County's 3.3%, while school-year hiring in government and education drove most of the state's job gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Arkansas unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Down from 4.0% in July; below US rate of 4.1%"}, {"label": "County unemployment spread", "value": "7.2% vs 3.1%", "context": "Desha County vs Benton County, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide payroll growth", "value": "+12,200 jobs", "context": "August; led by government (+5,700), ed/health (+3,200)"}, {"label": "Labor force participation", "value": "59.1%", "context": "Up YoY but down 0.1pt in August, signaling plateau"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "One nonmetropolitan label hides two different economies.", "body": "Desha and Phillips counties post unemployment near double the state rate while Madison, Faulkner, and Saline counties outperform it, a gap wide enough to change the calculus for any county-specific economic development pitch. Aggregated rural statistics risk flattening real disparities that matter for targeted public investment."}, {"headline": "School-year hiring, not broad private demand, drove August's job gains.", "body": "Government (+5,700) and private education/health services (+3,200) accounted for most of Arkansas's August payroll increase, a seasonal pattern rather than a signal of expanding private-sector momentum. Commerce leaders should expect this effect to fade in coming months without a corresponding uptick in trade, manufacturing, or professional services."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay for several skilled trades is falling against a rising national trend.", "body": "HVAC technician pay locally is down significantly while the national figure is up moderately, and CNA/home health aide pay is down moderately locally versus flat nationally \u2014 a divergence that may suggest softer local demand or a thinner mix of higher-paying placements in these categories. Worth tracking since both occupations serve aging and housing-related demand that typically holds steady in a healthy local economy."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation is leveling off just above 59%.", "body": "Arkansas's participation rate ticked down a tenth of a point in August after two years of steady gains, which is consistent with a labor supply ceiling rather than a cyclical pullback. A plateauing participation rate limits how much additional workforce capacity is available locally without migration or participation-boosting shifts."}], "local_conditions": "Arkansas's statewide unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in August, but the rural counties that make up the nonmetropolitan area tell a split story \u2014 northwest-adjacent counties like Madison hold near 3.3% while Delta counties such as Desha (7.2%) and Phillips (7.0%) remain structurally depressed, a gap that has persisted for years rather than emerging this month. Statewide payroll growth of 12,200 jobs in August was concentrated in government and private education/health services tied to the school-year start, sectors that disproportionately anchor employment in rural counties lacking a diversified private base.", "implications": "Wide dispersion in county-level unemployment means a single nonmetropolitan narrative misleads \u2014 commerce leaders assessing expansion or investment should treat the area as several distinct labor markets rather than one, since a Delta county employer faces a fundamentally looser labor supply than one near the northwest Arkansas corridor. Softening in locally advertised pay for CNAs, HVAC technicians, and operations managers, even as national figures for several of these roles rise, suggests local wage-setting power has weakened in some service and skilled-trade categories relative to the rest of the country. Consider evaluating county-level, not metro-aggregate, labor conditions before making any public investment, grant, or site-selection case tied to workforce availability.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "September state-level data has not yet posted as of early October; watch whether Arkansas's four-month streak of unemployment declines continues or whether the plateau in labor force participation becomes a reversal."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August, and real wages nationally are no longer outpacing inflation. If that national cooling reaches rural Arkansas's trade and transportation sector, a key local jobs driver this year, county-level softening could follow with a lag."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Divergence between falling advertised pay in HVAC, software, and operations roles locally and rising national pay for the same roles may signal thinning demand or employer caution in the nonmetropolitan area specifically, worth confirming against next month's postings data before drawing conclusions."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal WARN disclosures are not required at the state level in Arkansas (A.C.A. \u00a7 11-10-314), limiting visibility into local layoff activity; commerce leaders relying on public data alone should treat the absence of WARN notices as a data gap, not evidence of stability."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22158.0, "metro_p50": 25768.0, "metro_p75": 27839.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25077.0, "metro_p75": 26333.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30673.0, "metro_p50": 33724.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58468.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 87721.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25843.0, "metro_p50": 29503.0, "metro_p75": 31436.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29385.75, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.0, "metro_p50": 66898.0, "metro_p75": 68639.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29713.0, "metro_p50": 36177.0, "metro_p75": 40083.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30813.0, "metro_p50": 34977.0, "metro_p75": 37109.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25726.0, "metro_p50": 27031.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29627.0, "metro_p50": 33655.2, "metro_p75": 39239.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 36873.0, "metro_p75": 39506.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 57102.2, "metro_p75": 61319.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79560.0, "metro_p50": 92576.0, "metro_p75": 102156.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89743.0, "metro_p50": 133744.0, "metro_p75": 142071.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89100.0, "metro_p50": 112762.2, "metro_p75": 125228.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53850.0, "metro_p50": 63660.0, "metro_p75": 70433.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69797.5, "metro_p50": 89609.0, "metro_p75": 96920.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48228.75, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 85665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44520.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 73742.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60450.0, "metro_p50": 64000.0, "metro_p75": 76001.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33626.0, "metro_p50": 51386.4, "metro_p75": 54729.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52348.5, "metro_p50": 85863.4, "metro_p75": 100063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46082.5, "metro_p50": 54828.0, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74634.0, "metro_p50": 83353.0, "metro_p75": 94251.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58112.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 69171.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54383.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 91248.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57597.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 49893.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 45617.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28695.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65460.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:07.752100+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ar-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}