{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ann-arbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 14, "label": "Ann Arbor, MI MSA", "slug": "ann-arbor-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:17.085923+00:00", "headline": "Ann Arbor holds steady at 4.2% while Michigan drifts toward 5%.", "headline_summary": "Washtenaw County's unemployment rate held at 4.2% in August against a statewide rise to 5.0%, even as the metro posted the sharpest one-month employment drop among Michigan metros in June.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Washtenaw unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Unchanged since July; vs 5.0% statewide"}, {"label": "Michigan unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Up from 4.9% in July; 0.9 pts above U.S. rate"}, {"label": "Ann Arbor MSA June employment change", "value": "-2.3%", "context": "Largest one-month decline among Michigan metros"}, {"label": "Washtenaw annual job growth", "value": "+1,500 jobs", "context": "Dec 2024-Dec 2025; one of only 3 MI counties over +1,000"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Washtenaw's wage floor keeps rising relative to the state.", "body": "Average weekly wages in Washtenaw County exceeded the Michigan average by at least $30 as of Q3 2025, and the county was the only one among the state's top five highest-wage counties to add employment over that period. That combination of higher pay and employment growth suggests the local labor market is operating from a position of relative strength, not softness."}, {"headline": "A single volatile month complicates the stability narrative.", "body": "June's 2.3% month-over-month employment decline was the steepest among Michigan metros, even though the unemployment rate itself held flat into August. The divergence between a stable rate and a volatile employment count suggests underlying churn that a single headline number can mask \u2014 worth tracking before drawing firm conclusions about trajectory."}, {"headline": "Public-sector weight is doing real work for local stability.", "body": "Government and institutional employment in Washtenaw is forecast to grow at roughly twice the statewide pace through 2026, a buffer that is not available to most Michigan metros currently absorbing manufacturing losses. That structural advantage is also a concentration: any shift in state or federal funding to higher education or public administration would carry outsized local weight."}, {"headline": "Statewide manufacturing weakness has so far stayed at arm's length.", "body": "Michigan's manufacturing sector posted the largest over-the-month employment decline in August and dominates the state's WARN notice activity, yet Washtenaw's unemployment rate has not moved with it. Construction Laborer pay locally is up significantly year-over-year, suggesting at least pockets of blue-collar demand are holding even as the statewide industrial picture softens."}], "local_conditions": "Washtenaw County's unemployment rate held at 4.2% in August for a second straight month, outperforming Michigan's statewide rate of 5.0% and standing in contrast to a state labor force that contracted 0.5% over the month. That relative stability appears anchored by the region's government and higher-education base \u2014 Washtenaw's public-sector employment is projected to grow roughly twice as fast as the statewide pace through 2026 \u2014 even as the metro recorded a 2.3% month-over-month employment decline in June, its steepest drop among Michigan metros.", "implications": "Stable local unemployment alongside statewide softening suggests Ann Arbor's institutional anchors \u2014 University of Michigan and government agencies \u2014 are insulating the metro from the manufacturing-driven contraction playing out elsewhere in the state, a dynamic relevant to economic development planning and public investment decisions rather than private payroll strategy. Commerce leaders weighing expansion locally should note that Washtenaw added jobs even as four of five top-wage Michigan counties shed them, a signal of comparative resilience worth factoring into site-selection and investment conversations. Consider evaluating whether the county's reliance on non-cyclical sectors represents a durable advantage or a concentration risk worth monitoring as state-level manufacturing losses continue.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether June's sharp one-month employment drop in the Ann Arbor MSA was a data anomaly or the start of a trend will become clearer with the next two months of releases. A repeat decline would undercut the metro's current reputation for stability relative to the rest of Michigan."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force participation is falling even as unemployment holds near 5.0%, a pattern that masks underlying softness. Watch whether Washtenaw's own participation rate begins tracking that statewide decline or continues to diverge from it."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Michigan's minimum wage rises again to $15.00 per hour on January 1, 2027, following the January 2026 increase to $13.73. Retail and food-service pay locally has been largely stable to moderately up this cycle, so the scheduled increase is a known cost input for commerce leaders to plan around rather than an open question."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Washtenaw's payroll growth is forecast at just 0.2% for 2026, a deceleration from the 1,500 jobs added in the year ending December 2025. Confirm whether Q3 data, due later this fall, shows that deceleration continuing or stabilizing."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27215.0, "metro_p50": 30638.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25246.25, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32906.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30165.0, "metro_p50": 34463.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60500.0, "metro_p50": 81912.0, "metro_p75": 93011.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31213.0, "metro_p50": 34997.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36839.0, "metro_p50": 47382.4, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57653.5, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 101067.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34736.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29169.0, "metro_p50": 32537.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38423.0, "metro_p75": 41340.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35878.0, "metro_p50": 44633.0, "metro_p75": 47512.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 71618.0, "metro_p75": 76513.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84685.0, "metro_p50": 107484.0, "metro_p75": 110854.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 110678.0, "metro_p50": 149207.0, "metro_p75": 160250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94739.75, "metro_p50": 110732.2, "metro_p75": 124378.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59089.0, "metro_p50": 71031.0, "metro_p75": 80613.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72287.0, "metro_p50": 89063.0, "metro_p75": 94046.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 70830.6, "metro_p75": 75539.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48880.0, "metro_p50": 57901.8, "metro_p75": 85791.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61250.0, "metro_p50": 81693.0, "metro_p75": 90662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35388.75, "metro_p50": 48490.0, "metro_p75": 57365.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 89780.0, "metro_p75": 100279.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80550.0, "metro_p50": 95657.2, "metro_p75": 103668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 86680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33705.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 123337.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53591.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 74880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69174.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ann-arbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ann-arbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ann-arbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:03.842243+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ann-arbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ann-arbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}