{"schema_version": 1, "id": "amarillo-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 77, "label": "Amarillo, TX MSA", "slug": "amarillo-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:10:38.410565+00:00", "headline": "Amarillo management pay slides as labor market keeps tightening.", "headline_summary": "Amarillo's unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September even as advertised pay for Restaurant Manager/GM ($52,180) and Shift Manager ($29,120) roles declined, a divergence that could signal retention risk ahead of the holiday season.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Amarillo unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Down from 3.7% in August; among lowest in TX"}, {"label": "Texas restaurant unprofitability", "value": "50%", "context": "Up from 38% in 2024 (TX Restaurant Assoc.)"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic baseline"}, {"label": "Texas WARN layoffs YTD", "value": "17,285 workers", "context": "Down 35% from 2025, incl. Tyson Amarillo cut"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is softening while the labor market tightens \u2014 a mismatch worth tracking.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell to a metro median of $52,180 (moderate decline) against a national median of $59,724 even as Amarillo unemployment dropped to 3.5%. Suppressed management pay amid a tightening labor pool may signal retention risk building beneath a surface that otherwise looks calm."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation gives FOH cost relief, but it's regionally uneven.", "body": "Texas employers can now pay the $2.13 cash wage for non-tip-producing duties without the former 20% threshold, while Flagstaff, AZ moved the opposite direction to a full $18.35 minimum with no tip credit. Multi-state operators should expect FOH labor cost structures to diverge sharply by jurisdiction this cycle."}, {"headline": "Cook wages falling locally cut against a national shortage story.", "body": "Amarillo's Line Cook advertised pay dropped to $29,778 (moderate decline) even as BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% nationally through 2035 versus 2% for waitstaff. Local softening may reflect a temporary supply improvement, but it is inconsistent with the structural BOH shortage shaping national hiring strategy."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay is up significantly, bucking the metro's broader pay retreat.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay climbed to $42,543, a significant increase even as the national median fell to $50,076. Divergence this sharp against a declining national trend suggests localized demand \u2014 worth confirming against event and banquet volume before treating it as a durable signal."}], "local_conditions": "Amarillo's 3.5% unemployment rate \u2014 among the lowest of any Texas metro and down 0.2 points from August \u2014 signals a labor pool that continues to tighten even as private-sector payrolls shed 700 jobs in the latest month while government hiring absorbed the slack. Restaurant operators are competing for workers against a backdrop where the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule has been formally withdrawn, giving Texas employers new flexibility to assign side work to tipped staff at the $2.13 cash wage without the prior 20% cap.", "implications": "Falling advertised pay for Line Cook, Shift Manager, and Restaurant Manager/General Manager roles locally \u2014 even as unemployment sits near historic lows \u2014 suggests Amarillo operators are managing labor cost through compensation restraint, a position that may not hold if turnover (running near 80% nationally) accelerates. The 80/20 rule rollback creates near-term room to reduce effective FOH labor cost on slower shifts, but with Texas HB5368 pending and proposing a $19 minimum wage with full tip credit elimination, locking in current wage structures without a contingency plan carries risk. Consider stress-testing current FOH pay models against both the realized savings from 80/20 flexibility and the exposure if tip-credit elimination advances.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy watch", "body": "HB5368 remains pending in the Texas legislature and would raise the state minimum wage to $19/hour while eliminating the tip credit system entirely. Operators relying on the $2.13 tipped wage should model FOH labor cost under both current rules and this proposed structure before committing to multi-year staffing budgets."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Private-sector payrolls in Amarillo fell 700 in the latest month even as government payrolls rose 900, a divergence that could tighten the hourly labor pool further if government hiring continues to compete for the same workforce. Watch whether this shift pulls candidates away from restaurant applicant pools heading into the holiday hiring push."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "The Fall Amarillo Job Fair drew roughly 90 employers and job ads for over 1,014 positions in early October \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, since one ad often covers several openings \u2014 reflecting broad-based hiring competition across sectors. Track whether restaurant employers who participated see measurable application volume gains versus standard digital recruiting channels."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Falling local advertised pay for Shift Manager and GM roles against a 3.5% unemployment rate is an unusual combination that historically precedes either a demand slowdown or a retention correction. A reversal in either direction over the next two months will clarify which dynamic is in play."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30786.0, "metro_p50": 37378.0, "metro_p75": 41609.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40045.25, "metro_p50": 42543.0, "metro_p75": 42543.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 18776.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26679.75, "metro_p50": 29778.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 52180.0, "metro_p75": 56786.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 30077.0, "metro_p75": 32190.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25633.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Amarillo MSA unemployment rate 3.5% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Legislature", "source_url": null, "statement": "HB5368 proposes $19 TX minimum wage, eliminates tip credit"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment growth of 12% through 2035"}, {"source_name": "Texas Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Half of Texas restaurants unprofitable in 2025, up from 38%"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas WARN notices down 35% year over year through October"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "amarillo-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "amarillo-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:17:44.004303+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/amarillo-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/amarillo-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}