{"schema_version": 1, "id": "amarillo-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 77, "label": "Amarillo, TX MSA", "slug": "amarillo-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:22:07.614042+00:00", "headline": "Amarillo's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking labor pool.", "headline_summary": "Amarillo unemployment dropped to 3.5% in September even as private payrolls fell by 700 and government added 900, a pattern that tracks Texas's broader labor force stall of just 3,600 net new participants over the year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Amarillo unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Down from 3.8% in August; #2 lowest among TX metros"}, {"label": "Private vs. public payroll shift", "value": "-700 / +900", "context": "September private-sector loss offset by government gain"}, {"label": "Texas labor force growth", "value": "3,600 net/year", "context": "Near-stall vs. historical state growth norms"}, {"label": "Texas WARN notices YTD", "value": "17,285 workers", "context": "Down 35% from 2025, signals fewer mass layoffs"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment masks a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "Amarillo's rate dropped to 3.5% while private payrolls lost 700 jobs and government added 900 \u2014 the improvement traces to fewer job seekers and public-sector hiring. Treat the headline rate as a labor-supply signal first, a demand signal second."}, {"headline": "Public-sector hiring is the metro's main employment buffer this month.", "body": "Government added 900 jobs against a 700-job private-sector decline, meaning the public sector more than offset private losses in September. That balance underscores why public-sector budget and staffing decisions carry outsized weight for overall metro employment trends right now."}, {"headline": "Texas-wide labor force stall is showing up locally.", "body": "State labor force growth has nearly flattened at 3,600 net new participants over a year, and Amarillo's falling unemployment alongside soft private hiring is consistent with that same supply constraint playing out regionally. Workforce availability looks like the metro's binding constraint heading into year-end."}, {"headline": "Wage divergence across Amarillo's advertised-pay basket signals uneven cost pressure.", "body": "Software engineering, accounting, and HR-related advertised pay are up significantly locally, while roles like registered nursing, warehouse management, and food service show declines \u2014 a split that points to tightening in professional/technical segments even as frontline and manufacturing-adjacent pay softens. That divergence matters for reading local consumer spending power, since frontline wage softness affects a larger share of metro households."}], "local_conditions": "Amarillo's unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, declining 0.2 points from August and ranking second-lowest among Texas metros, even as nonfarm employment growth slowed to a net 200 jobs for the month, with a 900-job gain in government offset by a 700-job decline in private payrolls. The pattern is consistent with the statewide story: Texas labor force growth has nearly stalled, adding just 3,600 net participants over the past year, suggesting Amarillo's low jobless rate reflects a shrinking labor pool as much as robust demand.", "implications": "Government payroll stability is doing more work to hold Amarillo's labor market steady this month than private-sector expansion, a dynamic civic and commerce leaders should factor into any read of local economic resilience. For commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment, a 3.5% unemployment rate paired with flat-to-negative private hiring points to a capacity-constrained environment: workforce availability looks like the binding constraint. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether private payrolls stabilize over the next two reporting cycles before treating September's dip in unemployment as a sign of broader economic acceleration.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Amarillo's private-sector payrolls rebound from September's 700-job decline over the next one to two reports will clarify if the dip was a one-month fluctuation or the start of a trend. A second consecutive private-sector decline would be a more credible signal of cooling than this month's figure alone."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force stagnation (just 3,600 net new participants over a year) raises the question of whether Amarillo's low unemployment rate can hold if local population or participation trends mirror the state. Government economists should watch upcoming TWC participation-rate data for the metro specifically."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Roughly 90 employers listed 1,014-plus job postings at the October 6 Workforce Solutions Panhandle job fair \u2014 job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), across the metro's basket, though ad and listing counts often cover multiple openings and do not equate to actual hires. Watch whether this volume of advertised demand translates into measurable payroll gains in the next employment report."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN activity remains elevated (3,860 notices, 340,316 workers through late October) while Texas WARN filings are down 35% year over year. Continued divergence between national layoff trends and Texas's relative calm would reinforce the state's resilience narrative, but any uptick in Panhandle-specific filings would warrant a closer look."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22872.0, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 32808.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22997.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27679.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29700.25, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55046.0, "metro_p50": 79905.0, "metro_p75": 90740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29503.0, "metro_p50": 34553.0, "metro_p75": 41798.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28607.0, "metro_p50": 33771.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58021.0, "metro_p50": 73292.0, "metro_p75": 84563.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31020.0, "metro_p50": 35533.0, "metro_p75": 37315.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32223.6, "metro_p75": 35843.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26595.0, "metro_p50": 26842.0, "metro_p75": 26920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30973.5, "metro_p50": 35352.2, "metro_p75": 39323.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27810.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38513.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50172.0, "metro_p50": 64889.0, "metro_p75": 68220.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78000.0, "metro_p50": 90797.0, "metro_p75": 97700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 125304.25, "metro_p50": 161530.4, "metro_p75": 171297.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101979.5, "metro_p50": 129341.4, "metro_p75": 142970.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57625.0, "metro_p50": 66586.6, "metro_p75": 72813.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59025.0, "metro_p50": 72590.6, "metro_p75": 77399.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56204.0, "metro_p50": 82372.0, "metro_p75": 91749.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36248.25, "metro_p50": 50211.0, "metro_p75": 50211.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 42935.0, "metro_p75": 54636.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60506.0, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 101827.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64633.75, "metro_p50": 96545.6, "metro_p75": 100111.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56202.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 62908.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36441.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 72366.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 57531.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 58613.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 58865.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 59381.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29564.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Amarillo MSA unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Workforce Solutions Panhandle", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nonfarm employment up 200 jobs; government +900, private -700"}, {"source_name": "Dallas Federal Reserve", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas labor force added only 3,600 net participants over the year"}, {"source_name": "Workforce Solutions Panhandle", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fall Amarillo Job Fair drew ~90 employers and 1,014+ job listings"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission WARN Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas WARN notices down 35% year over year, 17,285 workers affected"}, {"source_name": "LayoffAlert", "source_url": null, "statement": "National WARN notices total 3,860 affecting 340,316 workers through Oct 26"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "amarillo-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "amarillo-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "amarillo-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:17:43.672083+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/amarillo-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/amarillo-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}