{"schema_version": 1, "id": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 57, "label": "Abilene, TX MSA", "slug": "abilene-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:22:58.289755+00:00", "headline": "Abilene's tight labor market signals capacity limits.", "headline_summary": "Abilene's 3.5% unemployment rate sits well below the 4.4% Texas and 4.1% national rates, but annual job growth of just 0.9% and a stalled statewide labor force suggest the metro is operating near capacity.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Abilene unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 4.4% Texas, 4.1% national (Sept. 2026)"}, {"label": "Abilene annual job growth", "value": "0.9%", "context": "700 jobs added over 12 months through Sept."}, {"label": "Texas labor force growth", "value": "3,600 net", "context": "over 12 months, against 154,300 jobs added"}, {"label": "Texas WARN notices", "value": "17,285 workers", "context": "down 35% vs 2025, through October"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment now reads as a capacity constraint.", "body": "A 3.5% jobless rate paired with just 0.9% annual job growth indicates the metro has little slack left to absorb new economic activity without wage competition intensifying. Commerce leaders courting employer relocation or expansion should weigh whether available labor is the binding constraint, separate from the number of available jobs."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and healthcare carry the metro's wage momentum.", "body": "Registered nurses ($104,432), electricians ($67,502), and CDL drivers ($78,000) all posted moderate advertised-pay gains this month, while construction labor and warehouse management pay fell. Divergence suggests wage pressure is concentrated in licensed and credentialed work, a signal relevant to workforce development funding priorities."}, {"headline": "Texas labor force stall is a structural headwind.", "body": "Texas added only 3,600 net labor force participants over the past year against 154,300 new jobs, a gap the Dallas Fed links partly to slower immigration-driven labor supply. Abilene's own flat labor force (90.2 thousand) mirrors this pattern, meaning future growth will depend more on participation gains than population inflow."}, {"headline": "Wage-vs-inflation gap is narrower here than nationally, for now.", "body": "National wage growth of 4.1% year-over-year still falls short of the 3.5-3.7% CPI gain reported for Q3, but several Abilene roles \u2014 nursing, electricians, delivery driving \u2014 show gains that may be outpacing local cost pressures better than the national median. That relative resilience is worth tracking as a signal of consumer spending capacity in the metro."}], "local_conditions": "Abilene's unemployment rate held at 3.5% in September, among the tightest labor markets in Texas and well below both the state's 4.4% and the national 4.1% rate, even as employment growth slowed to a 0.9% annual pace with only 700 jobs added over the year. Education and Health Services remains the metro's anchor sector at 16.6 thousand jobs, while statewide labor force stagnation \u2014 Texas added just 3,600 net participants over twelve months \u2014 points to a demographic ceiling on local workforce supply that predates and compounds any single month's job count.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment alongside slowing job growth signals a metro operating near capacity, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing whether Abilene can absorb a new employer or large project without straining available labor. Advertised pay gains in CDL driving ($78,000, up moderate), registered nursing ($104,432, up moderate), and electricians ($67,502, up moderate) suggest wage pressure is concentrated in skilled trades and healthcare, while declines in construction labor and warehouse management pay point to softening in goods-handling segments. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce planning efforts may benefit from targeting labor-force participation gaps, since open positions may not reflect available workers at current wage levels.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "October metro-level BLS data has not yet posted; watch for the release confirming whether September's 3.5% rate holds or drifts toward the 3.7-4.0% range seen earlier in 2026."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force growth has nearly stalled (15,800 added in September, 3,600 over twelve months). If Abilene mirrors that trend, commerce leaders should watch whether local participation rates move at all before assuming expansion-ready labor supply exists."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Manufacturing added jobs statewide for a second consecutive month, driven by oil/gas and AI-related construction activity. Any announced capital projects in the Abilene area tied to those sectors would be a leading signal of new labor demand locally."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal WARN notice activity nationally remains elevated (340,316 affected workers year-to-date) even as Texas WARN filings fell 35% year-over-year. A continuation of that gap would reinforce Abilene and Texas as outliers of stability worth highlighting to prospective employers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22999.75, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30823.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21897.0, "metro_p50": 25002.0, "metro_p75": 27214.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30233.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53537.25, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 86435.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28863.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29388.0, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56276.75, "metro_p50": 67501.6, "metro_p75": 72976.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30240.0, "metro_p75": 32428.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28916.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25636.75, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32630.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31946.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38275.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32147.0, "metro_p50": 39757.0, "metro_p75": 43195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55972.0, "metro_p50": 70627.0, "metro_p75": 76546.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85180.0, "metro_p50": 104431.8, "metro_p75": 113702.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113625.0, "metro_p50": 152500.0, "metro_p75": 167457.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100219.0, "metro_p50": 135000.0, "metro_p75": 153586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52081.75, "metro_p50": 64924.6, "metro_p75": 78926.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73013.0, "metro_p50": 93875.0, "metro_p75": 101920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47840.0, "metro_p50": 59410.2, "metro_p75": 62166.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36248.25, "metro_p50": 53146.6, "metro_p75": 58834.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25833.0, "metro_p50": 47988.0, "metro_p75": 56000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68922.0, "metro_p50": 94983.0, "metro_p75": 105413.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79461.0, "metro_p50": 96918.0, "metro_p75": 109288.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 73608.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34344.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62305.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 148874.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 58440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64163.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28389.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63179.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:17:21.931754+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}