{"schema_version": 1, "id": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 57, "label": "Abilene, TX MSA", "slug": "abilene-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:14.354407+00:00", "headline": "Abilene economy holds flat as health care carries the load.", "headline_summary": "Abilene's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in September even as nonfarm payrolls stayed nearly flat, with education and health services' 6.7% annual job growth standing out as the metro's lone consistent engine.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Abilene unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.7% in August; Texas statewide at 4.0%"}, {"label": "Education/health job growth", "value": "+6.7% YoY", "context": "Fastest-growing sector in the metro"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm payroll growth", "value": "+1.2% YoY", "context": "vs Texas 1.1% statewide, below Dallas Fed revised 2.0% forecast"}, {"label": "National wage growth", "value": "3.0% annual", "context": "Lowest since May 2021; trails 3.4% inflation"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Abilene's uptick to 4.2% unemployment is a stall, not a slide.", "body": "Payroll employment barely moved across major industries month over month, and the rate increase from 3.7% in August appears consistent with normal volatility seen earlier in 2026 rather than a new downturn. Commerce leaders should treat this as a flat reading, not a trend reversal."}, {"headline": "Health and education remain the metro's only visible growth engine.", "body": "The sector's 6.7% annual job gain outpaces every other segment of the local economy, reinforcing how concentrated Abilene's expansion has become. A local economy leaning this heavily on one sector carries more exposure if that sector's growth moderates."}, {"headline": "Wage divergence in manufacturing signals local-national disconnect.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production worker pay fell significantly even as Texas manufacturing wages climbed 4.8% statewide and national manufacturing postings grew. That gap suggests Abilene's manufacturing base isn't participating in the broader Texas industrial rebound, worth flagging for regional development planning."}, {"headline": "Construction pay weakness here cuts against the state's expansion story.", "body": "Texas construction employment grew 5.1% over the year statewide, yet Abilene's advertised construction laborer pay dropped significantly. Local construction activity appears disconnected from the state-level boom, a signal worth tracking given its relevance to any local capital projects or development planning."}], "local_conditions": "Abilene's unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September from 3.7% in August, while nonfarm payrolls stayed essentially flat across all major industries, consistent with a metro economy holding steady rather than accelerating or contracting. Education and health services continued carrying the metro's growth, up 6.7% year-over-year, anchored by Hendrick Health and Abilene Christian University alongside the stabilizing presence of Dyess Air Force Base, even as Texas-level manufacturing and construction momentum has yet to show up meaningfully in local figures.", "implications": "Flat payrolls alongside a rising unemployment rate point to a local economy in a holding pattern rather than genuine softening, which matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing against a labor pool that is not visibly tightening or loosening. Public-sector and institutional anchors (Dyess, Hendrick Health, ACU) continue to provide payroll stability that the metro's smaller private sectors cannot yet replicate, meaning broader commercial investment decisions should weigh dependence on these anchors rather than assume diversified private-sector momentum. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether education/health hiring strength persists into Q4 before treating it as evidence of a wider metro expansion.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Abilene's unemployment rate stabilizes near 4% or continues rising toward the 4.5% national peak seen earlier in 2026 will clarify if September's uptick is noise or a genuine shift."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Metro manufacturing and construction pay are moving opposite the statewide trend; watch whether this reflects fewer large local projects or a lag before Texas's data-center and AI-driven construction wave reaches Abilene."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Education/health services growth has driven most of the metro's job gains; any sign of plateau at Hendrick Health or ACU hiring would remove the metro's primary growth lever."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to a five-year low (3.0%) against 3.4% inflation; if that squeeze persists into Q4, local consumer-facing sectors like retail and food service may see demand softening regardless of Abilene's own job numbers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23756.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21941.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29804.0, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 36746.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 76749.0, "metro_p75": 86434.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28883.0, "metro_p50": 34988.0, "metro_p75": 40820.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29388.0, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55551.0, "metro_p50": 66785.6, "metro_p75": 71345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 30241.2, "metro_p75": 32428.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27650.0, "metro_p50": 35618.0, "metro_p75": 38566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25603.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31814.0, "metro_p50": 34541.0, "metro_p75": 37851.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32170.25, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 43756.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55972.0, "metro_p50": 70299.0, "metro_p75": 75897.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85989.0, "metro_p50": 107848.0, "metro_p75": 117688.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113156.0, "metro_p50": 152465.0, "metro_p75": 167278.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100220.25, "metro_p50": 136140.4, "metro_p75": 154980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53389.0, "metro_p50": 63168.4, "metro_p75": 85441.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72922.0, "metro_p50": 93297.6, "metro_p75": 101911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54646.0, "metro_p50": 59213.6, "metro_p75": 61852.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41249.75, "metro_p50": 54251.0, "metro_p75": 66357.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 51697.4, "metro_p75": 56000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57894.0, "metro_p50": 94983.0, "metro_p75": 120000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79805.0, "metro_p50": 97107.0, "metro_p75": 109494.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 75001.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79525.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35612.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 146059.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64893.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28193.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:47:41.115877+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/abilene-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}